RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Breaking up the eurozone

This paper deals with the question whether or not it is a good idea to break up the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone).

Special

The Return of Sovereign Risk in the Industrialised World

The severe deterioration of asset quality in late 2007 marked the opening act of the financial crisis. A drop in global economic activity during 2008 and early 2009 was next. A wave of sovereign defaults in the industrialised world is step three.

Economic Comment

Is the G20 making an undesirable U-turn?

The finance ministers of the G20 have called for an end to expansionary fiscal policies in their latest communiqué. This can prove costly while households and firms are still busy repairing their balance sheets and facing massive headwinds.

Economic Comment

Limited direct Greek contagion through banking sector

In the discussion on whether or not governments should bail out Greece, it has often been argued that by providing loans to Greece, the other eurozone governments are rescuing their domestic banks.

Special

Demystifying the paths towards debt sustainability

In this study the policy options: defaulting on debt obligations, withdrawing support measure for the banking sector, increasing inflation, boosting GDP growth and introducing austerity measures that governments have at their disposal are discussed.

Economic Comment

Are markets mispricing sovereign default risk again?

Some politicians and market participants are proposing to ban the trading of naked CDSs amid the surge in government bond yields. In our view, therefore, politicians must come up with austerity measures instead of searching for scapegoats.

Economic Comment

Germany: Will growth also disappoint in H1 2010?

We expect Germany’s economy to be supported by the inventory correction as well as external demand in H1 2010. There are, however, significant downside risks to this forecast.

Economic Comment

Will Greece face trouble rolling over its debt?

Rumours are mounting that a Greek syndicated bond issue is to be launched within days. This is an important event as the success or failure of such issuance will determine whether the Greeks have to go cap in hand to the European Commission or not.

Economic Comment

Should the Greeks go on a holiday?

Some market participants and notable economists are arguing that Greece needs to exit the eurozone, even temporarily, in order to regain its external competitiveness. As attractive as this option sounds, we are inclined to strongly disagree.

Economic Comment

Germany no longer the exportweltmeister

China has taken over Germany as the world’s export champion. But this is indeed a positive development for Germany and the government should actively pursue policies to rebalance the economy even more towards domestic demand.

Economic Comment

Germany's 09Q4 growth can disappoint

Germany’s economy has contracted by a record 5.0% y-o-y in 2009. Quarterly growth in 09Q4 should be flat. However, the business surveys and the orders data suggest that economy has expanded moderately in 09Q4.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2010: globalisation at a crossroads

With regard to globalization, we find ourselves at a crossroads in a number of areas. In this special report we focus on the future - even more so than in our economic Outlook for 2010 and beyond - and we describe the dynamic field in which changes to the economic and political world order are currently taking place.

Special Dutch version

Make the euro stronger

The euro is under pressure. Following a strong surge, the European currency has lost terrain against the dollar again. It is therefore time to strengthen the European currency institutionally.