RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Brexit Update - Blame games

The EU and the UK are treading carefully to avoid any blame when things go wrong, but it remains highly unlikely that a deal will be reached in the next two weeks. This means that there will be yet another showdown in Westminster.

Economic Comment Dutch version

EURIBOR reforms: Same car, different engine

EURIBOR will continue to exist for the foreseeable future, albeit with a new methodology. So there is no immediate risk of disruption. Still, contracts should include robust fall-backs for the eventuality that EURIBOR is discontinued in the future.

Economic Comment Dutch version

EONIA switches to €STR

€STR was launched in October as replacement for EONIA, which will be discontinued after 2021. The switch to €STR directly affects contracts that reference EONIA and mature after 2021. It may also impact valuations of other contracts.

Economic Comment Dutch version

USD LIBOR’s days are numbered

Beyond 2021 the publication of USD LIBOR fixings is not guaranteed. SOFR has been selected as the preferred successor. To avoid potential disruption in the event USD LIBOR ceases to exist, robust fall-back language should be implemented in contracts.

Economic Comment Dutch version

Benchmark reforms: Bigger than Brexit?

Globally, LIBOR rates that have long served as benchmark rates, are being replaced with better alternatives. Widespread reliance on these rates means that introducing new benchmarks comes with potential legal, financial, and operational risks.

Special

Trump: Impeachment without conviction

The Democrats in the House of Representatives have decided to start an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. While impeachment is possible as the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives, conviction is unlikely as long as the Republicans in the Senate continue to support their President.