RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Economic Update France

Several signals point to a contraction of private consumption in the current quarter. To this end, we can expect GDP to contract in 12Q2. President Hollande cannot significantly alter this outlook despite his preference for a growth-based strategy.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

Both growth and currencies appear to be on the slide in emerging markets around the World. In Brazil, China and India, governments are coming to the fore trying to keep growth at reasonable levels. There are a few scattered bright spots though.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

In the first quarter of 2012, the Italian GDP fell back for the third in a row. Consumer and producer confidence has deteriorated over the past months. This makes it very likely that the recession stretches out into the third quarter of 2012.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

GDP contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in Q1. This means a technical recession is now a reality. Going forward, output will bounce around over the next few quarters due to the Queen's Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics.

Economic Update

Economic Update The Netherlands

In the first three months of 2012 the Dutch economy contracted for the third consecutive quarter. Thus the Netherlands is still in recession. Consumption remains low, held back by tax increases and cutbacks combined with low consumer confidence.