Economic Update
After a contraction in Q1, we project subdued economic growth in Q2 and a pronounced recovery in the second half of the year. It will take until mid-2023 before Spain’s GDP will reach its pre-COVID level, provided that the vaccination pace accelerates.
Economic Update
The Dutch economy suffered an exceptional contraction of 3.8% in 2020, which amounts to the largest decline since WW2. The stringent lockdown caused household consumption to fall sharply and hurts the retail sector. Increased investments and industrial production, however, soften the blow.
Economic Update
Different from other European nations, France has not reinstated a lockdown in the first quarter. Consequently, we do not expect the French economy to contract in the first quarter. For 2021 we expect the French economy to grow by 5.8 percent.
Economic Update
A new strain of coronavirus has been found in Japan while a third wave of cases sweeps over the country. That will cause the economy to contract in the first quarter of this year. In that sense, the situation will get worse before it gets better.
Economic Update
The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.
Economic Update
Three Chinese State Owned Entities (SOEs) have defaulted on their bonds, possibly foreshadowing there is more to come. Meanwhile, tensions with the US are still increasing, and China’s economic recovery continues to be lopsided.
Economic Update
After a strong rebound in Q3, the Italian economy is set to contract again in Q4. We expect vaccinations starting early 2021 will support economic recovery next year, but full crisis recovery will likely take until in 2024.
Economic Update
We expect the economic impact of the partial lockdown to be smaller than the intelligent lockdown last spring, but consumer spending and investments will be hit hard. Because of the partial lockdown, the government announced extra support in the third support package.
Economic Update Dutch version
Extra expenditures due to the corona crisis make governmental finances deteriorate. The recovery of consumption is slow but the third support package and some fiscal measures are likely to stimulate domestic demand.
Economic Update Dutch version
The impact of the corona crisis on the Dutch economy is becoming increasingly visible. Private consumption and daily manufacturing production fell sharply in May, and unemployment rose quickly in June. The outlook for the recovery remains bleak.
Economic Update Dutch version
The first economic figures about the Dutch lockdown period show the severeness of the corona crisis. In April household consumption dropped to historic low and industrial production tumbled.
