Economic Update
High inflation keeps a grip on Dutch economy
High inflation keeps a grip on the Dutch economy. Economic growth is leveling off, but we do not expect a recession. The war in Ukraine is the largest source of uncertainty.
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Economic Update
The Netherlands – Navigating an Uncertain Economic Outlook
We were moderately positive about 2022, despite growing concerns about the high inflation prints. But that was all before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Economic Update
The Netherlands: Starting another year with a lockdown
The new lockdown measures in the Netherlands will mostly hit consumer spending. But consumer confidence was already in decline before these measures were announced.
Economic Update
The Netherlands: GDP Back at Pre-Covid Level – Now What?
Looking ahead, we expect growth figures will move toward more ‘normal’ readings. The economy is facing headwinds, mainly from supply-side constraints, such as labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and low availability of (raw) inputs.
Economic Update
Sector forecasts: Many sectors back to full speed
Most Dutch sectors had a good second quarter. The outlook is also favorable but there are concerns about shortages of materials and labor.
Economic Update
The Netherlands: Government presents budget for the coming year
The Dutch economy is recovering stronger than previously expected. And even though the government paved the way for economic recovery by support packages, the on Budget Day presented plans lack strategy and vision on housing shortages and climate change.
Economic Update
India’s economy gets back on track
Growth of 20.1% in India in Q2 is misleading, as economic output was disrupted by a second Covid-19 outbreak. Going forward, we expect an economic recovery as restrictions ease and mobility increases, fostering consumption and investments.
Economic Update
Spain: Reopening of the economy boosts the recovery
The reopening of the economy has spurred economic activity in the services sector. In Q2 GDP grew with 2.8%. The recovery is set to continue with again strong albeit slowing growth rates in the coming quarters. GDP will reach its pre-crisis level end- 2022.
Economic Update
Australia: From frontrunner to laggard
The transmission of the delta variant and low vaccination rates in Australia, have turned Australia from a frontrunner into a laggard. We have revised our economic forecast for 2021 downwards, as a result of the economic spillover effects of the current wave of, and projected, infections in Q3 and Q4.
Economic Update
The Netherlands: Economic Recovery Continues
Household consumption and exports have further increased. Additionally we expect the factors causing upward inflation to be temporary.
Economic Update
Italy: Economic outlook is improving as the economy is opening up
Italy started the year on a weak footing, but the outlook has been brightening over the past weeks. The economy is opening up and activity has been rapidly gaining speed. We forecast the economy to be back at its pre-COVID level in 2023Q1.
Economic Update
Spain’s economic recovery gradually gains ground after a weak start to the year
After a contraction in Q1, we project subdued economic growth in Q2 and a pronounced recovery in the second half of the year. It will take until mid-2023 before Spain’s GDP will reach its pre-COVID level, provided that the vaccination pace accelerates.
Economic Update
The Netherlands: Lockdown causes sharp decline in private consumption
The Dutch economy suffered an exceptional contraction of 3.8% in 2020, which amounts to the largest decline since WW2. The stringent lockdown caused household consumption to fall sharply and hurts the retail sector. Increased investments and industrial production, however, soften the blow.
Economic Update
France: Lockdowns determine economic recovery
Different from other European nations, France has not reinstated a lockdown in the first quarter. Consequently, we do not expect the French economy to contract in the first quarter. For 2021 we expect the French economy to grow by 5.8 percent.
Economic Update
Japan: Worse before better
A new strain of coronavirus has been found in Japan while a third wave of cases sweeps over the country. That will cause the economy to contract in the first quarter of this year. In that sense, the situation will get worse before it gets better.