RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Germany: Additional containment measures

Germany will implement additional containment measures to prevent a further rise of infections from 16 December to 20 January. Non-essential shops, schools and barbers will have to close. Closing of non-essential shops could cost as much as EUR 3.5bn TVA in December and January.

Economic Comment

Phase One Monitor – December update

Despite reversing the downward trend in September and October, China is still miles behind the target. There is a clear divergence on the progress towards targets for agricultural and energy imports, and manufacturing and services imports.

Economic Quarterly Report

Sector prognoses: Better next year

Underneath the surface of the macroeconomic turbulence, we see a variety of developments between and among sectors in the Netherlands. But a total recovery is not in the cards for 2021. Sectors are effected by both the economic downturn and the corona restrictions.

Economic Comment

Japan: Crawling out of a recession

The first signs of Japan’s economic recovery are here, albeit tentative. More fiscal stimulus is on the way. More monetary stimulus might be on the way as well, since core inflation has been negative for three months in a row.

Economic Update

China: Dealing with defaults

Three Chinese State Owned Entities (SOEs) have defaulted on their bonds, possibly foreshadowing there is more to come. Meanwhile, tensions with the US are still increasing, and China’s economic recovery continues to be lopsided.