Economic Report
The idea underlying Vollgeld is that of full-reserve banking from the 1930’s. In today’s context its side-effects would likely lead to instability and a deflationary tendency. In the Swiss case, uncertainty would have prevailed in the short-term, followed by a further appreciating Swiss Franc.
Economic Report Dutch version
Unlike in Italy, Spain’s new government is very much pro-EU and has indicated to comply with the European budget rules. The economic impact of the government shuffle will expectedly be very limited in the short term. Early elections are likely.
Economic Comment Dutch version
Expensive and unaffordable housing has become increasingly concentrated in cities. Why, and how can we make urban housing markets less volatile and more equitable?
Special
Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.
Economic Report Dutch version
President Mattarella has approved a Five Star-League government. The government has the intention to go on a spending spree and intensify opposition against Brussels, but not to leave the Eurozone. The risk, though, cannot be fully neglected.
Economic Comment
The short-term economic impact of the current political turmoil is limited. Italy will likely keep the Euro, but a government with Five Star and the League could severely damage debt sustainability and longer term growth prospects.
Economic Comment
The choice of the UK to leave the EU will have significant consequences for trade between the EU and the UK and will affect many companies. Our Brexit Monitor tracks the latest Brexit developments and anticipates on further progress.
Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version
While we still expect house prices to increase substantially this year, sales activities seem to reached a turning point on the Dutch housing market. Hampered by an increasing scarcity of homes in almost all regions, we have adjusted our 2018 sales forecast from 250,000 to 235,000 homes, a decline of 3% compared to 2017.
Special Dutch version
In this publication we look at three different indications pointing at increasing US recessionary risks. Our treasury yield curve model suggests a 27% probability of a recession in the 17-month window. This probability is much higher than the recession expectation of the NY Fed.
