Economic Comment
The British Parliament rejected the EU-UK Brexit deal on 14 January in a historic defeat for the government. The vote was expected to be a unique opportunity to change the Brexit course, but instead it left us in the same uncertainty.
Economic Comment
Our Brexit Monitor keeps you up to date with the latest Brexit developments. What effects will Brexit have, and what can you expect? An overview of the main news and analysis from experts.
Economic Comment
GDP of the Eurozone grew with 0.2% in the 4th quarter. France and Spain performed better than expected, but Italy entered a recession with two quarters of negative growth rates.
Economic Comment
We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.
Economic Update Dutch version
While unemployment in the Netherlands briefly dropped to a new record low, collectively negotiated wages rose only slowly in 2018. Furthermore a decrease in demand from abroad also dampened Dutch exports in the final months of the year.
Column Dutch version
Financial markets are signalling the risk of a recession. They might have cried wolf before, but it is still worth paying attention to them.
Economic Report Dutch version
Chinese economic growth continued its decline in the fourth quarter of 2018, bringing the annual growth figure for 2018 to 6.6%. This fits within our view of a gradual economic slowdown, but domestic and external risks are significantly on the rise.
Economic Report
In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.
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In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.
Economic Report
The disappointing recovery of the German car sector, the yellow vests in France and slowing external demand lead to a downward revision of our growth figures for 2018Q4 and 2019Q1.
Special
The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.
Economic Comment
The United Kingdom Parliament finally gets their turn on Brexit. In the evening of 15 January the MP’s will vote on the EU-UK deal and we expect that they will reject the current deal. That will push the UK into several weeks of political turbulence.
