RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Is Britain the next Greece?

In our view, there are ten reasons why the UK will not go down the ‘Greek path’ anytime soon. But the new government must plug in its fiscal black hole if it wishes to retain its debt sustainability and its cherished AAA rating.

Economic Report

Liquidity requirements from Basel make life tougher for banks

In December 2009, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision made proposals to harmonise the oversight of banks’ liquidity. Are these new requirements even more stringent for the banking sector than the proposals for tighter capital requirements?

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly

The housing market in the Netherlands is gradually recovering from the blow dealt to it by the credit crisis. The downward trend in transaction numbers now seems to have been broken, setting the trough at just over 125,000 transactions on a 12 month basis.

Special

Demystifying the paths towards debt sustainability

In this study the policy options: defaulting on debt obligations, withdrawing support measure for the banking sector, increasing inflation, boosting GDP growth and introducing austerity measures that governments have at their disposal are discussed.

Country Report

Country Report The Netherlands

The Dutch economy shrank by 4% in 2009, the biggest post-war decline. However, the much stronger than the foreseen upturn in the world trade is the main reason for the economy regaining growth in the second half of 2009.

Economic Report

India looking East

India has never been a big player in international trade. Nevertheless, over the past twenty years, the country has developed its trade relations. India started in 1991 with its ‘Look East’ policy, trying to gain better access to regional markets in Asia.

Country Report

Cameroon (Country report)

In the past, Cameroon benefited from being a small oil-exporting economy (10% of GDP, but 40% of exports and fiscal revenues in 2008). Oil exploitation created fluctuating trade and budget surpluses and attracted inward foreign investments.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

The Netherlands : stumbling along

During the past year the economy was in a deep slump. And although the end of the recession was officially heralded in the third quarter of 2009, the recovery is not yet very convincing. For 2010 the expected real growth of the Dutch economy of 1¾% on average will be below the trend of before the crisis.

Economic Comment

Are markets mispricing sovereign default risk again?

Some politicians and market participants are proposing to ban the trading of naked CDSs amid the surge in government bond yields. In our view, therefore, politicians must come up with austerity measures instead of searching for scapegoats.

Economic Report Dutch version

Impact of new capital proposals from Basel

In this Special Report we focus on these new proposals (‘Basel III’) and on the history that preceded them (Basel I & Basel II). What do these new requirements mean for the financial sector, and what do they mean for the Rabobank? Will the new capital requirements be able to prevent another crisis?

Economic Comment

Germany: Will growth also disappoint in H1 2010?

We expect Germany’s economy to be supported by the inventory correction as well as external demand in H1 2010. There are, however, significant downside risks to this forecast.

Economic Comment

Will Greece face trouble rolling over its debt?

Rumours are mounting that a Greek syndicated bond issue is to be launched within days. This is an important event as the success or failure of such issuance will determine whether the Greeks have to go cap in hand to the European Commission or not.