RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Singapore (Country report)

Singapore has very healthy public finances, strong net-creditor position, solid economic fundamentals, and a stable political environment. Having said that, the large size of the country’s banking sector combined with a huge dependence on global demand makes Singapore’s economy particularly vulnerable to external shocks.

Country Report

South Africa (Country report)

South Africa’s economy recovered, after a year-long recession in 2009. In 2010, the economy grew by 2.8%. Growth was largely demand driven, with an increase in both external and domestic demand fuelling growth in, among others, the manufacturing sector.

Country Report

Country Report Japan

Japan is an economy running high-speed into uncharted territory. It has boosted growth potential to the maximum relative to its ageing population, boasting among the highest rates of labour force participation and effective retirement age among the industrialises world.

Country Report

Israel (Country Report)

Israel’s small but technologically advanced free-market economy, located in an important and geopolitically high risk region, was and still is doing remarkably well. The short-term outlook is also encouraging.

Country Report

Botswana (Country report)

Botswana’s economy is recovering from the global crisis that especially hit its export sector. In 2011, the economy is expected to grow by 6%, from 7.2% in 2010. In addition, the current account deficit will shrink to 0.1% of GDP in 2011 (from 2.4% of GDP in 2010), signalling an increase in external demand for Botswana’s diamond exports.

Economic Update Dutch version

Monthly Upate The Netherlands

The Dutch economy grew 0.6% in the last quarter of 2010, taking full year growth up to 1.7%. Looking ahead, the pace of Dutch growth is set to moderate in the coming months, resulting in a slightly lower GDP-growth of 1,5%.

Economic Report

The history of financial crises

The world is littered with financial crises, yet we seem surprised every time they occur. Against this backdrop, we take a closer look at the financial crises since 1800 to see whether we can draw some lessons for the future.

Economic Report

What if AAAmerica gets downgraded?

Long-standing concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal imbalances have finally led to the first ‘negative outlook’ for the AAA-rating of US sovereign debt by S&P.

Economic Report

The Rabo Sovereign Vulnerability Index

After the dismal failures of the financial markets to correctly price sovereign risk before the crisis, one must be aware that they can still over-or underprice sovereign risk in some countries.

Country Report

Cameroon (Country Report)

Cameroon performs well on almost all macroeconomic indicators: inflation is low, the fiscal and current accounts are almost in balance and debt levels are sustainable. Nonetheless, GDP growth is low at 2.8% (2010).

Country Report

Serbia (Country Report)

Serbia’s economy is still weak as it posts twin deficits. The balance of payments position is weak as the continuously large current account deficits require debt financing. Even so, Serbia’s external position has improved since the nadir during the global financial crisis in 2008.

Country Report

Kazakhstan (Country Report)

Kazakhstan’s economy is recovering steadily and posted 7% growth in 2010. The main problems in the banking sector have been dealt with, but the sector remains a major weakness nonetheless.

Country Report

Azerbaijan (Country Report)

Azerbaijan has been affected much less by the global financial crisis than some other CIS countries, as it entered the crisis without a large credit bubble or high private external indebtedness.