RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Italy: once in recession, always in recession?

In 14Q3, GDP volume contracted with 0.1% q-o-q. Investment acted as the largest drag on growth. In 2015, GDP volume is expected to grow slowly after three years of contraction, mostly on the back of foreign demand. Unemployment will remain high.

Economic Update

Belgium: softening domestic demand in 2015

Economic growth in the third quarter of 2014 was 0.3% q-o-q and was mainly supported by private investments and private consumption. Looking forward, domestic demand growth is likely to soften.

Economic Update

Spain: investment is back, consumption is up

Spain’s economic recovery has strengthened in the third quarter, mainly due to growth in consumption and investment. This also improves next year’s growth outlook. Meanwhile, the external rebalancing is in full swing and government finances are improving.

Economic Update

France: at last, economic growth

Real GDP growth in France increased by 0.3% q-o-q in the third quarter of 2014. We expect private consumption to keep growing and act as the main driver of growth in 2015.

Economic Update

Germany: at least, it is no recession

German GDP-growth was weak in the third quarter. It was mainly driven by domestic consumption, while gross capital formation attributed negatively. Going forward, we expect this picture to remain unchanged.

Economic Update

Italy: Recession, there we go again

In 14Q2, GDP volume contracted, again. Deflation may support consumption going forward, but lower consumer confidence and high unemployment temper expectations. For fixed investment, headwinds outpace tailwinds, so a firm recovery is unlikely.

Economic Update

Spain: GDP and employment growth on the rise

GDP growth remains robust, mainly owing to a rise in private consumption. We expect employment growth to pick up, especially in the services sector. The fiscal reform announced in the wake of next year’s election puts the deficit target at risk.

Economic Update

Belgium: recovery slows in second quarter of 2014

Recent data shows that the Belgian economic recovery remained in place, but weakened in the second quarter of 2014. Going forward, we expect the recovery of the Belgian economy to continue in the second half of 2014, but the pace is likely to be sluggish.

Economic Update

France: recovery remains weak

Recent data show that the French economy did not grow in the first half of 2014 and the outlook for the second half is muted. Furthermore, the labour market remains weak and we expect unemployment to decrease at the end of 2015.

Economic Update

Germany: Europe’s growth engine faltered

In the second quarter, the German economy shrank by 0.2% q-o-q. Without the negative impact of the warm winter, GDP growth would probably have been positive. Hard data also shows that the German economy had a strong start of the current quarter.

Economic Update

Italy: a setback, but no game changer

In 14Q1, GDP volume fell again after only one quarter of growth in more than two years. Private consumption, however, did increase for the first time since 2010. Underlying data suggest the economy will muddle through during the rest of the year.

Economic Update

France: recovery stuck in the starting blocks

The French economy registered growth of 0.0% in 2014Q1 q-o-q, caused by weak consumer spending, poor business investment and declining net exports. We expect these trends to continue and expect therefore a very modest recovery going forward.

Economic Update

Spain: increasing growth, decreasing inflation

Gradually increasing GDP growth in recent quarters and a further improvement of sentiment show that the Spanish recovery is on a solid footing. However, despite this recovery, inflation remains worryingly low.

Economic Update

Germany: mild winter dominates the figures

The German economy had a strong start of 2014 growing 0.8% q-o-q. The growth acceleration can partly be attributed to the soft winter that boosted construction activity. Therefore we expect a somewhat lower growth figure for the current quarter.