RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Angola

Angola is an oil-rich country and Africa’s second largest oil exporter. Angola’s economic growth is highly dependent on oil price developments and a declining international oil price will therefore remain a cause of concern.

Country Report

Country Report Colombia

Peace talks between the FARC and the government are likely to be protracted, but could boost the reputation of Colombia and the energy sector. Meanwhile, an important tax reform could reduce the high income inequality and labour informality.

Country Report

Country Report Philippines

The Philippines has managed to maintain macroeconomic stability despite a weak external environment. Meanwhile, helped by large and steady remittances inflows, the country’s external (liquidity) position remains strong.

Country Report

Country Report Argentina

Argentina’s economy is likely to recover modestly in 2013, but the peso has fallen rapidly on the informal market, as a devaluation is widely expected. Meanwhile, there is the risk that Argentina will enter a technical default.

Country Report

Country Report Aruba

The shutdown of Aruba’s oil refinery has put a major drag on economic growth. The economy contracted by -1.2% in 2012, while the growth figure for 2011 was revised downwards. Due to the GDP contraction, public finance ratio’s worsened considerably.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Frankrijk (Dutch)

De milde BBP-krimp waar Frankrijk al een jaar mee kampt lijkt ook in 13K2 aan te houden. De twee jaar uitstel om te voldoen aan de begrotingsnorm van 3%-BBP voorkomt een onwenselijk zware bezuinigingsinspanning die het herstel verder zou tegenwerken.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Verenigd Koninkrijk (Dutch)

Recente data wijst erop dat het herstel is aangebroken. De verbetering van het vertrouwen en de ruimere financiele condities wijzen op toenemende economische activiteit. Zwakke buitenlandse vraag zal echter de groeivooruitzichten blijven bepalen.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

If being disappointed is worse than being angry, the World is in a terrible place. However, one can read two things into disappointment either: the performance is really bad, or the expectations were too high.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

The mild GDP contraction that France experienced for a year now is expected to continue in 13Q2. The extra two years France was granted to reach the budget target of 3%-GDP prevent a tough fiscal adjustment which would further hamper the recovery.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld België (Dutch)

Het BBP is in 13K1 met 0,1% gegroeid. Wij verwachten ook in 13K2 nog geen positieve impuls van de binnenlandse vraag. Door het overtreden van Europa's begrotingsregels, riskeert België een boete en moet de overheid extra bezuinigingen doorvoeren.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Nederland (Dutch)

Er is nog geen einde gekomen aan de recessie waarin de Nederlandse economie zich bevindt. Het BBP-volume kromp in het eerste kwartaal met 0,1% op kwartaalbasis. Sentimentsindicatoren wijzen nog niet op een spoedig herstel.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

In the first quarter GDP grew by 0.1%. We do not expect domestic demand to support economic activity in 13Q2. By violating EU's budgetary rules, Belgium risks a fine and the government is forced to announce additional fiscal austerity measures.

Economic Update

Economic Update The Netherlands

The Dutch economy still finds itself in recession. In the first quarter, GDP volume contracted by 0.1% on a quarterly basis. Sentiment indicators do not yet point at a speedy recovery.