RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Derde Plenum in China maakt verwachtingen niet waar (Dutch)

Er is tijdens het derde plenum brede politieke steun verkregen voor het doorzetten met de nodige hervormingen. Een einddoel is geformuleerd, maar het is helaas niet duidelijk geworden hoe China dat precies gaat bereiken.

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - China: balancing reforms and growth

After an ambitious start, China’s new leadership seems to have eased back on its reform drive. Maintaining a sufficiently strong growth rate is still the priority. For 2014, this implies only incremental reforms and a growth rate of around 7¼%.

Country Report

Country Report China

Growth in China is rebounding but, unfortunately, still driven by investment growth on the back of government stimulus and credit growth. The government thus still prioritizes on short-term growth, which makes implementing reforms a difficult task.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.

Economic Quarterly Report

China: Disappointing growth not necessarily bad

Contrary to earlier expectations, China’s economic growth slowed slightly. This was not necessarily bad news, as the growth rate remained between 7.5%-8%, whereas significantly stronger or weaker growth would currently both be undesirable. This is the translation from the Dutch version of the Economic Quarterly -

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht juni 2013 (Dutch)

Wereldwijd hebben beleidsmakers de monetaire sluizen de afgelopen maanden verder opengedraaid. Ook qua begrotingsbeleid lijkt er een iets andere wind te gaan waaien.

Economic Comment

China: Growth slows in first quarter

China´s economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2013, against expectations. Chinese authorities don’t seem too concerned (yet) and take a cautious approach regarding further growth supporting policies. China´s growth estimate for 2013 is lowered to 7.5%-8%.

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht maart 2013 (Dutch)

De wereldeconomie is sinds het begin van dit jaar in rustiger vaarwater gekomen. Volgens sommigen is daarmee 'het licht aan het eind van de tunnel' in zicht gekomen. Anderen zijn daar minder van overtuigd en stellen dat dit licht afkomstig is van een naderende trein.

Country Report

Country Report China

Economic growth in China unexpectedly slowed in 1Q2013. This slowdown, however, is not unwelcome at this moment and the government is thus not concerned. The ongoing credit growth is a concern, however, as this increases risks to the banking sector.