RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Germany: Economic recovery?

The German economy shrank by a record breaking 10.1% in the second quarter, but still fared much better than European peers. We expect a technical recovery in the third quarter.

Economic Comment

Japan: Wave of concern

As we expected, the Bank of Japan did not move during its last meeting and will likely remain in wait and see mode for a while. In the meantime, a second wave of coronavirus infections is hurting Japan’s economic recovery.

Economic Report

Should India Print Money To Fight Covid-19?

Against the backdrop of a crippled economy and rising debt metrics, policymakers around the globe are adopting or considering unconventional monetary policy to solve the current state of emergency. For some countries, such as India, this would be a bad idea. We show that a major MMT fiscal package could push inflation up to 12% and the currency down by 25%.

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic Report

United States: Civil unrest

The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.

Economic Comment

Japan: Rising cases and rising tensions

The Bank of Japan will probably take a break from stimulus, for now. Meanwhile, coronavirus cases are on the rise again in Tokyo, as are tensions with China. Both represent downside risks to our outlook.

Economic Report

India: Twin crises bode ill for the economic outlook

Besides the border dispute with China, India continues to struggle to keep a lid on COVID-19. The twin crises has an adverse impact on India’s attractiveness as an investment destination, which might explain why the Indian rupee (INR) has barely been able to benefit from the global financial markets rally.

Economic Comment

Japan: Even more stimulus, yet not enough

Japan’s government has increased its stimulus package to a whopping 43% of GDP. This, together with increased central bank stimulus, will prevent bankruptcies and unemployment from rising sharply. However, Japan’s economy is already suffering and we still think it will shrink by 4.8% this year.

Economic Report

Which jobs are vulnerable in the six-foot economy?

The United States might be stuck with a so-called ‘six-foot economy’ for a considerable period of time in order to prevent a re-emergence of the COVID-19 virus. Our main finding is that 23% of all US jobs might face problems to adapt to such an economy. Occupations in healthcare (60% vulnerable jobs), air transport (59%) and the hospitality sector (49%) are especially vulnerable.

Economic Report

The shape of India’s exit from the COVID-19 crisis

We expect the COVID-19 crisis to cost each Indian between INR 8,000 to 16,000 in 2025 of missed economic growth compared to a benchmark scenario of no pandemic, depending on the shape of the recovery. However, if the USD 270bn recent stimulus package addresses India’s structural weakness and is properly executed, India’s economy could even emerge stronger from the COVID-19 crisis.