The 0.2% q-o-q growth in 11Q2 is blamed on a host of ‘special factors’. But this is absurd, in our view. The lackluster post-recession recovery suggests the harsh austerity measures have been very ill-timed.
Based on disappointing macro data in 11Q2 and a fall in confidence levels, we have decided to revise our GDP-growth forecast for both 2011 and 2012 slightly downwards. Private investments will continue to play their role as a stable growth driver.
In 11Q2 the real economy grew by only 0.1% q-o-q. However, this was not entirely surprising. Growth in 11Q1 was driven by private investment in the construction sector. In 11Q2, investment growth slowed. Consumers were also tight-fisted.