RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic Comment

Germany: Economic recovery?

The German economy shrank by a record breaking 10.1% in the second quarter, but still fared much better than European peers. We expect a technical recovery in the third quarter.

Economic Comment

Japan: Wave of concern

As we expected, the Bank of Japan did not move during its last meeting and will likely remain in wait and see mode for a while. In the meantime, a second wave of coronavirus infections is hurting Japan’s economic recovery.

Special

Money printing: First, do no harm

Can we just print extra money to tackle the corona crisis? We conclude that only seven (!) countries in the world meet our proposed MMT criteria: leaving aside the US, these countries need the rare combination of a sovereign currency, simultaneous fiscal deficit and current account surplus, plus good governance.

Economic Comment

Japan: Rising cases and rising tensions

The Bank of Japan will probably take a break from stimulus, for now. Meanwhile, coronavirus cases are on the rise again in Tokyo, as are tensions with China. Both represent downside risks to our outlook.

Economic Comment

Japan: Even more stimulus, yet not enough

Japan’s government has increased its stimulus package to a whopping 43% of GDP. This, together with increased central bank stimulus, will prevent bankruptcies and unemployment from rising sharply. However, Japan’s economy is already suffering and we still think it will shrink by 4.8% this year.

Special

EU recovery fund: What will be the impact?

The European Commission presented a recovery fund for the EU. Although there a quite some hurdles to be taken, a compromise does not look out of reach. The pooling of liabilities is further completes the European capital market.