3565 Publications

January 21, 2019 Column Dutch version

Six of the last four recessions

Financial markets are signalling the risk of a recession. They might have cried wolf before, but it is still worth paying attention to them.

January 21, 2019 Economic Report Dutch version

China: cooling economy induces policymakers to fire up the stimulus engine (again)

Chinese economic growth continued its decline in the fourth quarter of 2018, bringing the annual growth figure for 2018 to 6.6%. This fits within our view of a gradual economic slowdown, but domestic and external risks are significantly on the rise.

January 21, 2019 Column

Een Britse ‘tragedy of the commons’ (Dutch)

Het conceptakkoord voor uittreding uit de EU werd weggestemd in het Britse ‘House of Commons’. De ontwikkelingen in het VK lijken op een klassieke ‘tragedy of the commons’, waarbij handelen vanuit eigenbelang leidt tot lagere collectieve welvaart.

January 21, 2019 Economic Report

India: 2019 Economic Outlook

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

January 21, 2019 Video

India: 2019 Economic Outlook - video

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

January 19, 2019 Economic Report

Veel van de kosten van het klimaatakkoord zullen ook over drie maanden niet duidelijk zijn (Dutch)

Het CPB rekent het Klimaatakkoord door. Dit is geen gemakkelijke taak. Weinig kosten worden begroot, terwijl er voor sommige partijen ‘verborgen’ kosten zijn. Het kabinet zal het Klimaatakkoord moeten aanvullen met eigen beleid.

January 18, 2019 Economic Report

Eurozone: Revisiting growth

The disappointing recovery of the German car sector, the yellow vests in France and slowing external demand lead to a downward revision of our growth figures for 2018Q4 and 2019Q1.

January 18, 2019 Economic Update

Nederland: groei zwakt sneller af dan gedacht (Dutch)

Terwijl de werkloosheid tot het laagste niveau in meer dan vijftien jaar zakte, stegen de cao-lonen in 2018 slechts mondjesmaat. Minder vraag vanuit het buitenland dempte daarnaast de Nederlandse export in de laatste maanden van het jaar.

January 17, 2019 Special

The US recession of 2020

The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.

January 15, 2019 Economic Comment

Brexit Update: It's the turn of the UK Parliament now

The United Kingdom Parliament finally gets their turn on Brexit. In the evening of 15 January the MP’s will vote on the EU-UK deal and we expect that they will reject the current deal. That will push the UK into several weeks of political turbulence.

January 14, 2019 Column

Eerste baan, maar hoe vind je een eigen huis? (Dutch)

Als woningzoekende krijg je verschillende goedbedoelde tips, zoals direct kopen, een makelaar inschakelen, een huisgenoot nemen of buiten de stad zoeken. Maar welke tips zijn nu echt nuttig?

January 03, 2019 Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

The Netherlands: Economic growth to slow in the coming years

The Dutch economy is approaching its limits due to a tight labour market, while imported uncertainty is hindering business investment. This may be the last chance for policymakers to fix the roof while the sun is shining.