RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

United Kingdom: Brexit hangover

Brexit will get messier under Boris Johnson’s leadership and the British economy is already suffering from the Brexit uncertainty. The economic outlook for 2019 is modest and shadowed by the prospect of a hard Brexit on 31 October.

Economic Update

United Kingdom: consumers benefiting from rising asset prices

The recent batch of positive data suggests that the risks to our growth forecast are tilted to the upside. The strengthening job market, receding uncertainty, rising asset prices and looser credit conditions are pushing up sentiment.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

The recent batch of positive data suggest that the recovery has arrived. The recent pick up of sentiment and loosening of financial conditions suggest that activity will slowly gather pace in the coming months. But the growth outlook remains weak.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

The Budget 2013 had no surprises as the government opted for a fiscally neutral package. The Bank of England has got extra room to stimulate the economy. This is unlikely to change the outlook without slowing down the pace of fiscal tightening.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

GDP contracted in 12Q4. The labour market continues to surprise on the upside. Inflation is expected to rise further, which will be an extra headwind for households this year. There are signs that the Funding for Lending Scheme is gaining traction.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

UK's GDP was boosted by temporary factors in 12Q3. Output is expected to contract in 12Q4. The improvement in the labour market is slowing down. Inflation is expected to fall less rapidly, which will be an extra headwind for households in 2013.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

UK GDP was revised further upwards in 12Q2. A number of indicators are pointing to a stronger recovery. That said, it makes sense to wait for the autumn data to draw a more definitive judgement on the underlying strength of the economy.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

UK GDP contracted by a whopping 0.7% q-o-q in 12Q2. This was largely due to the Diamond Jubilee and an extremely wet weather.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

GDP contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in Q1. This means a technical recession is now a reality. Going forward, output will bounce around over the next few quarters due to the Queen's Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

The UK GDP contracted by 0.2% q-o-q in 11Q4. On a positive note, household spending finally grew after 4 quarters of contraction. Going forward, falling inflation may result in stronger consumer spending.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

We kick-started the new year with a slew of positive news. December’s leading indicators were stronger than expected, which indicate that the economy may have gained a bit of momentum going into 2012.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

The much-awaited QE2 was finally launched in October after Adam Posen, the arch-dove MPC member, convinced everyone to get on board. The programme does not seem to be a success though. Growth in 11Q3 (0.5%) was in line with expectations.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update United Kingdom

The 0.2% q-o-q growth in 11Q2 is blamed on a host of ‘special factors’. But this is absurd, in our view. The lackluster post-recession recovery suggests the harsh austerity measures have been very ill-timed.