RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

United Kingdom (Country report)

The UK economic recovery is struggling amid the harsh fiscal squeeze. A significant slowdown in the pace of recovery, which will possibly have adverse spill-over effects to the banking sector, is a major risk, in our view.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

The 0.6% q-o-q contraction of GDP in 10Q4 was in a word, disappointing. The harsh winter explains part of the slowdown but there are unfortunately other signs pointing to a struggling recovery. Warmer weather may lead to a temporary boost in GDP in 11Q1, but the growth outlook in the coming quarters is not much brighter.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

United Kingdom: economic snowdown

The economic recovery remains sluggish. Households are facing major headwinds and the export outlook remains uncertain. Yet, the government still plans to go ahead with its consolidation measures while hoping for the best.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

The recovery had plenty of pace in the closing stages of 2010. That said, the services sector weakened considerably. We expect private consumption to grow robustly in 10Q4. But consumption growth in 2011 will be weak amid the upcoming fiscal squeeze.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Weak economic recovery in 2011 not entirely unexpected

During the past year we witnessed a lacklustre economic recovery. And the outlook for 2011 does not look much better. This may be disappointing, yet considering the severity of the recession, it is not altogether surprising. In the United States, as well as in a number of European countries, consumers were living beyond their means for years.

Economic Report

UK: to QE or not to QE?

The pace of economic recovery is slowing before the fiscal squeeze has kicked in. But the BoE is hesitant to launch QE2 given the higherthan expected inflation (expectations). There are definitely short-term upside risks to inflation, mostly due to the VAT hike in January 2011.

Economic Report

UK Budget: good politics, bad economics?

The UK government claimed that the fiscal consolidation plan will be tough and they certainly did not disappoint. The government plans to reduce its structural budget deficit by 8% of GDP over the next five years.

Economic Report

Is Britain the next Greece?

In our view, there are ten reasons why the UK will not go down the ‘Greek path’ anytime soon. But the new government must plug in its fiscal black hole if it wishes to retain its debt sustainability and its cherished AAA rating.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Outlook 2010

A thriving economy, such as we experienced in the years 2004-2007, is currently well beyond our reach. Officially, the recession is over, but the recovery is slow and uncertain. For the year ahead, our economists predict a meagre GDP growth of 1%.