RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Emerging Markets Vulnerability Heatmap

We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.

Special

The economic impact of a (partial) NAFTA breakdown

The total economic costs of a NAFTA breakdown up till 2025 would range between 0.9% and 1.0% GDP for the US, 1.3% and 2.0% GDP for Canada, and 2.2% and 2.6% GDP for Mexico, depending on the severity of the breakdown.

Economic Report

Latin America: turning the populist page

The past year has been tumultuous for Latin American politics, characterised by a shift to the right in election results and away from populism in policy, and numerous corruption scandals. Current risk levels are likely to linger in the coming year.

Special

Latin America: FX, risk, carry and central banks

Latin American currencies remain at the mercy of external factors and in particular global liquidity and central bank policy. And that is unlikely to change in the coming year.

Country Report

Mexico: growth holds up well despite austerity

Growth is holding up well despite the fallout from low oil prices and the resulting fiscal austerity, which strongly and negatively affects public investment but at the same time supports the credibility of the government’s economic policies.