RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Italy: to trigger or not to trigger elections

Renzi has resigned as party leader, but he is bound to make a comeback in the spring. The chance of early elections in the fall is a bit larger than that of elections in 2018. In any case, the efficiency of the next government is likely to be weak.

Economic Update Dutch version

Italy: All bets are off

4 December, Italy rejected a reform that would have improved the governability the country. Renzi has resigned, but the initial market impact has been fairly muted. Paradoxically, the chance of a referendum on Eurozone membership has reduced.

Special

The voice of Italy

Sunday 4 December, Italians will vote on a constitutional reform that should support policymaking in Italy. Yet the reform is not without downsides. The suggestion that a 'No'-vote would put Italy on a path towards leaving the Eurozone is wrong.

Economic Report

The eurozone crisis - where are we right now?

The peripheral countries are at very different stages of economic recovery and rebalancing. Growth has returned and private and public balances have improved. Unemployment and public debt levels remain high, whilst part of the rebalancing may just be cyclical.

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Italy

Public sector debt was already very high and economic growth very weak in the years prior to the crisis. Private sector debt was and still is relatively low. Despite recent structural reforms, the economic outlook remains rather weak and unemployment and public debt high.