RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Italy’s political crisis continues

The short-term economic impact of the current political turmoil is limited. Italy will likely keep the Euro, but a government with Five Star and the League could severely damage debt sustainability and longer term growth prospects.

Economic Update

Italy: elections unlikely to hamper economic recovery

Italians are very upbeat and don’t seem to worry about the upcoming elections. The short-term economic outlook is quite rosy. We expect the next government won’t endanger the recovery, but at the same time won’t improve the weak long-term outlook either.

Special Dutch version

Italian elections: three scenario’s

The Italian elections on March 4 will likely yield a hung parliament. The reform outlook is weak and some fiscal slippage is likely. We believe the risk of an unexperienced nationalist government is limited, but the market might well be underpricing risks.

Economic Report

Italy: to trigger or not to trigger elections

Renzi has resigned as party leader, but he is bound to make a comeback in the spring. The chance of early elections in the fall is a bit larger than that of elections in 2018. In any case, the efficiency of the next government is likely to be weak.

Economic Update Dutch version

Italy: All bets are off

4 December, Italy rejected a reform that would have improved the governability the country. Renzi has resigned, but the initial market impact has been fairly muted. Paradoxically, the chance of a referendum on Eurozone membership has reduced.