RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

Trade wars then and now: Smoot-Hawley all over again

The protectionism of the Trump era is similar to the 1930s in terms of motivation, timing, and retaliation. The differences lie in the shift of protectionism through tariffs to non-tariff barriers and the extent of international value chain integration, which makes the impact of protectionist measures less predictable.

Special

The economic impact of a (partial) NAFTA breakdown

The total economic costs of a NAFTA breakdown up till 2025 would range between 0.9% and 1.0% GDP for the US, 1.3% and 2.0% GDP for Canada, and 2.2% and 2.6% GDP for Mexico, depending on the severity of the breakdown.

Economic Report

Mexico/Canada: are free-trade agreements with the EU beneficial?

We find evidence that the current bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between Mexico and the EU raised exports by 4%. An improved BTA between the EU and Mexico could mitigate some of the negative fallout of a potential NAFTA collapse, albeit to a small extent.

Country Report

Country Report Canada

Economic growth in Canada is expected to slow somewhat, as the oil price plunge will negatively impact investment but boost consumption somewhat. The housing market is Canada’s main domestic risk, as high house prices and high levels of debt make households vulnerable to a rate hike.

Country Report

Country Report Canada

After a rapid recovery following the Great Recession, Canada’s economic growth slowed down. The transition to more balanced growth, with stronger contributions from exports and investment has proved elusive. Economic activity remained modest in 2013.

Country Report

Country Report Canada

The budgetary problems of the US government could affect Canada significantly. Furthermore, the continuing strength of the Canadian dollar is weighing on exports. Domestic risks stem from high household indebtedness and a slowing housing market.

Country Report

Canada (Country report)

Canada remains a well governed country and boasts a strong economy. The economic recovery is underway and is expected to continue, albeit at a more modest pace.

Country Report

Canada (Country report)

Canada remains a well governed country and boasts a strong economy. The economic recovery is underway and risks to household finances are acknowledged and addressed.