RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic Comment

China: Rising tensions

The rising tensions between China, the EU, US, UK and Canada could have wide implications, from hurting the chances of ratifying the recent EU China investment deal to effects on the global supply of cotton.

Economic Report

India: Second wave and vacci”notion”

India showed 0.4% GDP growth in Q3 of FY21. Unfortunately a second wave of Covid cases is on the rise, which might hamper growth in the next months. Although vaccine implementation started mid-January, the pace of vaccination must accelerate if India is to reap economic benefits in 2021. Fortunately, availability of vaccines is not a constraint.

Economic Report

India: The two faces of FY22 budget

We expect a fiscal Q3 GDP figure of -1.8% (y/y) on 26 of February. In general, the outlook for India is improving as the economy picks up and the prospect of additional fiscal support as presented in the FY22 budget. At the same time the policies of the RBI and the government do entail a dose of future risk.

Economic Report

Why India is wise not to join RCEP

On November 15th, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed, but India decided to opt out. Many consider this a policy mistake, but we argue that India’s choice is actually quite rational.

Economic Update

Emerging markets vulnerability heatmap

The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.

Special

Economic developments in India: A mixed bag of ups and downs

Economic developments in India are mixed. On the upside, there is the prospect of an effective vaccine, fresh government stimulus and better economic performance than anticipated. On the downside, there is a risk of a second wave and the economy continues to struggle with high inflation.

Special

COVID-19 policy response: Spend or lend?

The unequal balance between developed and emerging economies becomes painfully clear in the different government response packages to COVID-19. Emerging markets are constrained in their ability to finance appropriate fiscal packages.

Economic Report

India’s worrying inflation dynamics

Inflation in India has been stubbornly high. Although we expect inflation to come down, we believe the downward trajectory will be short-lived. Against this backdrop, the Reserve Bank of India is probably reluctant to cut its policy rates.