RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

New Zealand: Two sides of the same coin

The economic effect of Omicron will be contained in Q1 before growth accelerates from Q2 onwards. However, higher prices and lower global growth, fuelled by the war in Ukraine, drag on economic growth in the second half of 2022. As such, the recovery is likely to be not as strong as it looks at face value.

Economic Report

Travel bubble brings Australia out of isolation

The establishment of a travel bubble between New Zealand and Australia has more symbolic than economic value. Even though the Australian labour market has shown a strong performance over the last months, the end of the JobKeeper program is hanging above the labour market like the sword of Damocles.

Economic Report

Trumponomics: Trans-Pacific Partnership is the first trade victim

In this piece, we analyze which region loses most because of the TPP withdrawal by Trump. The US withdrawal has given China, which was excluded from TPP, opportunities to fill a void and to further expand its influence in Asia.

Economic Report

Asia-Pacific: agricultural perspectives

Asia Pacific is a decisive component in the global food chain. Asia’s large and growing population and rising incomes will continue to drive demand for food, agricultural commodities and resources. But Asia cannot produce enough to support itself.

Economic Report

Asia-Pacific: can Asia’s convergence story continue?

Demographics will provide headwinds in the developed countries of APAC and China, and tailwinds in South Asia. While total factor productivity growth has fallen, the innovation outlook for the APAC region is still relatively favourable.

Economic Report

Asia-Pacific: many risks but no new Asian crisis in the making

A balance of payments crisis is unlikely in today’s Asia. Most countries have improved their current accounts and FX reserves. The rising debt load may however pose problems, although it nowadays is mainly local currency denominated.

Country Report

New Zealand: continuing stress in dairy and housing sector

The economic growth outlook has worsened due to less favorable global outlook, which keeps key commodity prices low. The risk of a sharp correction of house prices in Auckland has induced the government to implement additional macro-prudential measures.