RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Spain (Country Update)

The Spanish government is seriously tackling its financial and economic issues. But the country is currently in a perfect storm of recession, missed budget deficit targets, rising government debt and rising opposition to government policies.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

The contraction of the Spanish GDP volume in 12Q3 was much smaller than expected. But this will prove to be a temporary effect, since consumers have frontloaded their spending in August to avoid paying higher VAT rates in September.

Special

Political risks in the eurozone (Special)

The eurozone's south is implementing austerity measures while the north is buying them the time to do so. Economic issues are usually extensively discussed. But what are the political risks that might render this strategy unfeasible?

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

Following two quarters of a 0.3% q-o-q GDP contraction, the decline in economic activity probably acce-lerated in 12Q2. The fact that the government has been unable to reduce the budget deficit up until May is worrying.

Economic Comment

Bad news from Spain, default still unlikely

A lot of bad news has emanated from Spain over the past couple of weeks. This is likely to keep the pressure on the Spanish government bond market. But we still maintain the view that a sovereign default in Spain is unlikely.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

Spain is back in recession. The economy contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in 12Q1 – exactly matching the decline in the previous quarter.

Country Report

Spain (Country report)

The Spanish economy is back in recession and government austerity measures will ensure that the economic contraction continues throughout the year. There is a clear risk that more austerity will further deepen the recession.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

The Spanish economy contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in the last quarter of 2011. We expect a further contraction in the first quarter of the current year. Government spending cuts and tax hikes will have a negative impact on domestic demand this year.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

In 11Q3, export growth managed to keep the Spanish economy out of recession. But the available economic data for 11Q4 point to GDP contraction in that quarter. For the first quarter of this year we also expect GDP to fall.