RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

How fast is China actually growing?

In this Special, we present our newly developed indicator for monitoring economic growth in China: the China Activity Indicator (CAI). In addition to five traditional indicators (such as electricity output), this also includes an indicator of private consumption. According to the CAI, growth in China in 2015 is closer to 5% than 7%.

Country Report

Country Report Malaysia

Growth in Malaysia is expected to slow slightly in the coming years. Lower oil prices will hurt government income in 2015. As the political career of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has ended, the opposition coalition has been weakened.

Country Report

Country Report India

India is experiencing an upward momentum. Growth is accelerating and the government is incrementally implementing needed reforms, inflation is easing and the current account deficit has narrowed.

Country Report

Country report Indonesia

The reform process in Indonesia is not expected to speed up markedly under the new government, but growth is expected to accelerate somewhat. Indonesia remains vulnerable to deteriorating financial markets sentiment.

Country Report

Country Report Bangladesh

The political environment in Bangladesh has calmed in recent months and the AL government is likely to sit out its term in office. Growth is strengthening, albeit only very slightly, and the current account surplus will narrow further.

Country Report

Country Report Maldives

On the back of a recovery of the tourism sector, GDP growth is picking up. Political stability has returned in the short-term following the victory of President Yameen and his PPM party in the 2013 presidential and March 2014 parliamentary elections.

Country Report

Country Report Sri Lanka

On the economic front, Sri Lanka is performing relatively well. Growth is holding up strongly and the balance of payments is improving. The increasingly authoritarian style of the Rajapaksa government is, however, less positive news.

Country Report

Country Report India

The recent massive election win of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and expectations of business friendly reforms are boosting sentiment and growth. However, India will not change overnight.

Country Report

Country Report Uzbekistan

Real GDP growth in Uzbekistan is likely to weaken somewhat in the coming years, but remain sound on the back of high (public) investment growth. Would president Karimov decide to run for another term, political uncertainty will be eased, but only temporarily.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

The policy focus in Indonesia is on macroeconomic stabilisation, while protectionist policies have been implemented in the past months. Growth is expected to slow to 5.4% in 2014. No major new structural reforms are expected from the next government.

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

After the May 22 coup, Thailand is under military control. The risk of large and violent protests remains present. The democracy is unlikely to be restored in the short-term. Whilst in control, the military aims to restore economic growth.

Country Report

Country Report Brunei

Brunei’s economy contracted by 1.8% in 2013, but growth will be positive, though muted this year. The government has started to gradually introduce a sharia penal code.