Economic Update
The Dutch economy suffered an exceptional contraction of 3.8% in 2020, which amounts to the largest decline since WW2. The stringent lockdown caused household consumption to fall sharply and hurts the retail sector. Increased investments and industrial production, however, soften the blow.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The Dutch economy is expected to contract by 5.2% in 2020. Measures to combat corona, uncertainty and rising unemployment are making the recovery patchy.
Economic Report Dutch version
Assuming that the corona restricting measures will be continued at least until June 1, we expect the Dutch economy to contract by 5 percent this year. The economic recovery may start in the second half of the year, but it will take time.
Special
We have revised our economic forecasts and expect the global economy to contract by 2.6% in 2020. How quickly the economy recovers after the coronavirus crisis depends on how fast people get back to work and whether productivity growth is permanently damaged.
Special
Using Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) we try to backcast US macroeconomic variables. The composition and interpretation of the factors differ pre- and post-2008-crisis. In terms of backcasting accuracy the DFM outperforms the Autoregressive model pre-crisis, but not post-crisis.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The global economic slowdown is starting to become tangible in the Netherlands: we expect economic growth to fall to 1.4% in 2020. A disruptive hard Brexit could cost the economy the majority of that growth.
Special
The slowdown of US productivity growth can be turned around if policymakers would launch an alternative policy agenda, focusing on stimulating investment in science, innovation and education.
Special
The slowdown of US productivity growth can be turned around if policymakers would launch an alternative policy agenda, focusing on stimulating investment in science, innovation and education.
Video
We discuss the US productivity slowdown and policy options to reverse that trend.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The economic picture for the largest economies is positive, while emerging markets are in a more difficult position. There is a substantial downward risk for the world economy, especially due to trade tensions between the US and its trade partners.