Economic Update
French President Macron struggles with low approval ratings and decreasing economic confidence, despite a strong parliamentary mandate for reform and upward economic potential. The 2019 budget proposal reduces the size of government, modest improvements in public finances and stimulus for private demand.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The economic picture for the largest economies is positive, while emerging markets are in a more difficult position. There is a substantial downward risk for the world economy, especially due to trade tensions between the US and its trade partners.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The economic outlook for the global economy remains positive, but risks of a correction have increased sharply as a result of increasing trade tensions. Geopolitical risks and vulnerabilities in various emerging economies are also worrying.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Global economic growth accelerates mildly in 2018. But the hardening of US trade policy increases the risk of escalation in trade relationships. This would seriously damage the US economy and cause a setback in the recovery of world trade growth.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Global economic growth accelerates this and next year. Though for many central banks their inflation target remains out of reach. As such, monetary policy normalisation is not yet on the cards, while it is needed to structurally lift economic growth.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
We expect moderate global economic growth of around 3 per cent in 2017 and 2018. American protectionism will expectedly have a negative effect on world trade growth. Political developments in the US and Europe constitute the biggest source of uncertainty.
Special
While executive orders allow the President to act unilaterally, the US political system has several checks and balances in place that give the Congress and the courts the power to derail or overturn his decisions. Trade conflicts are the main downside risk of Trump’s executive orders.
Special Dutch version
As of January 20, Donald J. Trump is President of the United States. In this Special we sketch the changes in economic policy that we should expect in the coming years, in particular in the areas of fiscal stimulus, trade policy, and energy policy. We also look at effects on US public debt sustainability, and market implications.
