RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Thailand: heading for extended military rule

Thailand is heading for extended military rule, as the National Assembly rejected the proposal for a new constitution paving the way to early elections. Economic growth remains relatively weak, forcing the government to revert to populist economic policies.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Poland embarked on a broad-based economic recovery, as growth rose from 1.6% in 2013 to 3.3% last year. Large amounts of CHF-denominated mortgages should not derail the recovery, while upcoming elections are unlikely to lead to major policy changes.

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

Almost a year after its coup, Thailand’s economic growth only recovers gradually amid lingering uncertainty about the future direction of the country. While the imposition of martial law prevents social unrest, the military works on a new constitution to prepare the country for elections in 2016.

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Bulgaria’s economic and political situation remains tense, as yet another government stepped down, the local financial system was shaken by organised bank runs, and bilateral relations with Russia soured markedly due to the halt of construction of the South Stream pipeline.

Country Report

Country Report Algeria

Algeria’s social situation remains stable as President Bouteflika was elected for his fourth term in office. The government presented a new five-year plan that once more aims to diversify the economy away from the hydrocarbon sector.

Country Report

Country Report Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia-Herzegovina faces major socioeconomic challenges in the aftermath of devastating floods and months of violent protests. The upcoming general elections in October are unlikely to improve the situation, but increased IMF support should alleviate possible financial problems.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Poland’s economy continued to rebound strongly in the first half of this year, but growth is likely to weaken amid mutual EU and Russian sanctions. As prime minister Tusk heads for Brussels, a new cabinet may be nominated as soon as early September.

Country Report

Country Report Lithuania

Six months ahead of its euro area accession, Lithuania’s economy performs strongly. While reciprocal EU and Russian sanctions are unlikely to derail growth this year, tensions with Russia may result in further boycotts of Lithuanian products.

Country Report

Country Report Croatia

Croatia’s economy is heading for its sixth year of recession, as ongoing deleveraging efforts and structural weaknesses depress growth. Amid worrying public debt dynamics, Croatia’s government increased its fiscal consolidation efforts and adopted some structural reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Czech Republic

The Czech Republic’s economy is heading for a relatively broad-based recovery, after it emerged from an 18-month recession last year. On the political front, early elections following a major corruption scandal yielded a less eurosceptical cabinet.

Country Report

Country Report Serbia

Serbia’s newly-elected government promised to embark on a comprehensive structural reform programme as the country’s fiscal situation has deteriorated markedly, but the prospect of faltering economic growth could confront it with considerable social challenges.

Country Report

Country Report Austria

Austria’s economic growth is set to gain steam, but its banks may face rising challenges in Russia and Ukraine, where they have sizeable exposures. Meanwhile, the re-elected ‘Grand Coalition’ government finally decided on a bad bank solution for Hypo Alpe Adria.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia avoided a sovereign bail-out last year, as an asset quality review revealed manageable bank recapitalization costs. Yet, the country is not out of the woods yet, as its increasingly instable government struggles to rein in this year’s budget deficit.

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Thanks to a policy-induced rebound of domestic demand and solid exports, Hungary exited recession last year while keeping its budget deficit below 3% of GDP. Yet, sustainability concerns remain, as unorthodox policies will likely continue beyond the parliamentary elections in April.