RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Denmark

The economic outlook is improving, public and external balance sheets are healthy, and institutions strong. Denmark’s banking system has become more stable, though large dependence on wholesale funding does pose risks. But, the main source of concern is the very high household debt.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

Italy’s recession has come to an end, but the crisis continues. Though, household financial wealth has remained high and the political situation seems to have improved a bit; yet words still have to be turned into action. Besides, weak institutions and large public debt remain a major issue.

Country Report

Country Report Norway

The economic outlook is stable, public and external balance sheets are exceptionally healthy, insti-tutions strong and policymaking is adequate and effective. But, Norway has to deal with very high household debt alongside overvalued houses and is dependent on oil and gas (related) production.

Country Report

Country Report Finland

Finland has to deal with a weak economic outlook, waning export sectors, a rapidly ageing population and private sector debt. That said, its public finances and banking system are solid, institutions are strong and the business sector is competitive.

Economic Update

Italy: goodbye recession, hello stagnation

In 13Q4, Italy’s recession officially came to an end. Looking forward, the economic outlook has improved somewhat, but GDP growth will greatly depend on exports. Meanwhile, in Rome the game of musical chairs was won by the centre-left democrat Renzi.

Economic Update

Belgium: Economic recovery pushes through

In the final quarter of 2013, GDP volume rose with 0.5% q-o-q. Looking forward, the economic recovery is expected to push through as the economy faces fewer headwinds. Nevertheless, a full revival of economic growth and the labour market needs time.

Country Report

Country Report Singapore

Strong institutions and effective policymaking support (potential) GDP growth, while the state’s small size and ageing pose challenges. Healthy balance sheets across the board and a solid international creditor position reduces Singapore’s susceptibility to shocks and financial crises.

Economic Update

Belgium: Good things come to those who wait

The economic recovery carries on as growth of domestic demand increases. Fiscal policy will be less distortive next year and inflation remains low. However, high unemployment and also wage moderation still limit private consumption growth.

Economic Update

Italy: Arrivederci recessione?!

GDP growth stagnated in 13Q3. One cannot talk of a start of economic recovery yet, though. The contribution of domestic demand was negative and there are still significant headwinds. On a positive note, policy uncertainty might fall going forward.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

Italy has to deal with a severe crisis and large public debt stock. Non-performing loans in the banking sector are on the rise, while government bond yields are vulnerable to political instability. Given large debt dynamics, Italy should improve its potential growth rate to ensure debt sustainability.

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - Eurozone

The eurozone economy seems to have entered a phase of modest recovery. But, worrisome public finances, limited investment demand and tight credit conditions continue to hamper growth. Current problems are unlikely to be solved by a banking union.

Economic Update

Italy: The road to Rome is still very long

The Italian economy stayed in recession in 13Q2. Sentiment is improving, but domestic demand will be too weak to support growth in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, political turmoil is making markets nervous, which further hampers the recovery.

Economic Update

Belgium: a bumpy road to recovery

In 13Q2, GDP growth turned positive after stagnation in 13Q1. Going forward, the recovery is expected to continue, but at a fairly slow pace and subject to downside risks. Robust labour market recovery is not expected before the end of the year.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

In the first quarter GDP grew by 0.1%. We do not expect domestic demand to support economic activity in 13Q2. By violating EU's budgetary rules, Belgium risks a fine and the government is forced to announce additional fiscal austerity measures.