RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

France: Nombres rouges

The French economy slightly contracted in 13Q3, but this was largely due to a bounce back from the strong 13Q2 figure. We expect the recovery to continue, albeit very gradually. Therefore, we do not envisage a robust improvement in the labour market.

Economic Update

France: A jobless recovery

A strong GDP figure in 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels show that economic conditions are improving. That said, the GDP figure was boosted by temporary factors while the rigid labour market does not show any signs of recovery yet.

Economic Update

France: improving conditions

France might be able to prevent another GDP contraction in 13Q2. This expectation is based on better-than-expected household consumption and industrial production figures. Overall, we take note of an unexpected improvement of economic conditions.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

The mild GDP contraction that France experienced for a year now is expected to continue in 13Q2. The extra two years France was granted to reach the budget target of 3%-GDP prevent a tough fiscal adjustment which would further hamper the recovery.

Country Report

Country Report France

The recent decennium shows a gradual deterioration of the strength of the private sector. President Hollande has shown he is willing to address this, but we seriously doubt whether his reforms will be sufficient to change France’s economic model.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

The weak momentum of 12Q4 seems to have continued into 13Q1.Therefore a new mild recession is likely. A postponement of the budget target would limit the impact on domestic demand this year. The drawback is that a larger effort is needed in 2014.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

The French economy seems to have contracted mildly in 12Q4. Going forward, sentiment indicators in January point to a deterioration of economic activity, in contrast to the slight improvement seen in several other eurozone countries.