RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report India

Economic growth is India is slowing to the lower end of the 5-6% range. Decisive government action could give a boost to growth, but with elections scheduled for 2014 there seems little room.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Being hailed as the only EU country without a recession during the 2008/09 global financial crisis, all eyes are on Poland now that the economy is slowing.

Country Report

Country Report Bangladesh

Bangladesh has posted strong growth in the face of a deteriorating external environment. In 2012, the economy expanded by 6.3% and is expected to grow by around 6% in 2013. Bangladesh remains one of the poorest countries in the world.

Country Report

Country Report Paraguay

Paraguay’s GDP growth is estimated to increase to around 9.5% in 2013, as conditions have improved markedly recently. Fernando Lugo was impeached last year and interim president Franco will remain in charge until the April 2013 elections.

Country Report

Country Report South Korea

South Korea’s economic growth has slowed to around 2% in 2012. Presidential elections in 2012 passed smoothly, with Park Guen-hye winning the elections. The situation in North Korea has deteriorated as the regime has performed a third nuclear test.

Country Report

Country Report Tanzania

Tanzania grew 6.8% in 2012 and expects 7% growth in the coming years. Gas reserves discovery can boost the economy, but high corruption can cause discontent with Tanzanians and donors. Readily available financing accommodates the large twin deficit.

Country Report

Country Report Vietnam

With improved economic policies the government has been able to stabilize the economy since early 2011. The external liquidity position improved, but remains weak. In case confidence in the economy falters again, improvements could be undone quickly.

Country Report

Country Report Costa Rica

In 2011 and 2012 the Costa Rican economy grew by 4.2 and 4.9%, respectively. The outlook is rather favorable, we expect the economy to grow by around 4% per year in the coming years. Main risk right now is the financial position of the government.

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Hungary’s economy fell back into recession last year and growth is expected to remain negative in 2013. Its government managed to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP, but very high foreign currency-denominated debt remains a major source of risk.

Country Report

Country Report Romania

Romania’s recovery from the crisis in 2009-2010, when GDP fell by 6.5%, has yet to gain pace. We expect the economy to have grown by a meager 0.2% in 2012. The slow growth is largely caused by the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and slow demand.

Country Report

Country Report Rwanda

Rwanda’s is in trouble. Due to the UN’s claims of involvement in the violence in DR Congo, several donors withdrew their support. This hits Rwanda hard, as donor income accounts for a large part of foreign exchange and fiscal income.

Country Report

Country Report Uruguay

Economic growth in Uruguay eased somewhat in 2012, but nevertheless remained decent. The government has tried to fight high inflation through a price freeze, while the overall policy framework remained friendly.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

The largest country risks in Lebanon lie in the political sphere, as conflicts between the government and opposition are fierce. The economic outlook is bleak as the regional unrest, particularly in Syria, will weigh on economic activity.

Country Report

Country Report Dominican Republic

Economic growth cooled markedly in the Dominican Republic, while strong pre-election spending led to a deterioration of public finances. The balance-of-payments position remains weak and could deteriorate further if PetroCaribe support were to end.

Country Report

Country Report Malaysia

Driven by strong domestic demand, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 5.2% in 2012, but weak external demand may lead to a growth slowdown this year. In mid-2013, general elections will be held that will likely be won by the current government.