RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Argentina: winds of change

Argentina is heading for change as the October 2015 elections are approaching. However, the economic tide will take longer to change as macroeconomic imbalances are large and increasing.

Country Report

Chile: economic reality holds back reforms

Despite low copper prices, growth picks up modestly on the back of government stimulus and external rebalancing, but risks remain tilted to the downside. Economic reality and Bachelet’s low popular approval rates hold back reform ambitions.

Country Report

Brazil: headwinds intensify

Brazil is experiencing the strongest contraction in the last two decades on the back of an unfavourable environment, a frontloaded adjustment of economic policy and prevailing negative sentiment. Increasing political tensions complicate the situation.

Country Report

Country Report India

Economic growth has been strong recently and is expected to strengthen somewhat in the near future. Although economic policy in India is moving into the right direction, the pace is slow, which eventually might hurt economic growth.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

The Indonesian economy has slowed down due to lower commodity prices and the inability of President Widodo to implement reforms and planned infrastructure investments. Meanwhile, he has resorted to populist policies to boost popular support.

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

One and a half year after the coup, the military regime is still in power. Elections are again delayed and stability is preserved through repression. In the meantime, the economy is performing disappointingly with tourism being the only bright spot.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

Lebanon’s economy continues to show weak growth in 2014 (3%), being adversely effected by the conflict in Syria. But the banking sector remains healthy and Lebanon still has ample foreign reserves, which mitigates its otherwise high country risk.

Country Report

Country Report Jordan

Jordan’s economic situation is improving. GDP growth has picked up to 3.1% in 2014, driven by lower oil prices and growth in the tourism sector. The greatest risk is still that the conflicts in Syria and Iraq will lead to negative spill-overs.

Country Report

Country Report China

Concerns about a Chinese slowdown have increased, but most indicators suggest that the downturn is concentrated in industry and construction. The direct impact of the stock market rout is limited, but it has damaged the credibility of the crucial reform agenda of the government.

Country Report

Country report Mexico

Economic growth has slowed as a result of low oil prices and tax hikes, but going forward external demand and investment will support growth. Oil reform will further induce FDI but the security situation in some region remains challenging.

Country Report

Country Report Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico’s government is on the very verge of a default. Structural problems, economic shocks and weak public finances have yielded a decade of economic stagnation, outmigration, fiscal deficits and an unsustainable public debt.

Country Report

Country Report Uruguay

After years of very high growth, Uruguay’s economy is “cooling off” as exports and domestic de-mand growth rates are both slowing. Uruguay remains susceptible to weak economic conditions in the near region, in particular in Argentina and Brazil.

Country Report

Country Report New Zealand

Economic growth is slowly decelerating in New Zealand due to prolonged low commodity prices. Low milk prices put a strain on the dairy sector. Meanwhile, the RBNZ in general softened its LTV restrictions, but tightened it for the Auckland area.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Russia’s economy is forecasted to shrink by around 4% in 2015, on the back of lower oil prices and imposed sanctions. The outlook also remains bleak due to low investor confidence and a tightening of the government’s control over the country.