RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Chili: a step to the right

Since the return to democracy in 1990, the center-left oriented coalition, the Concertación, had won every presidential election. In fact, Piñera is the first right-wing candidate to win a democratic presidential election since Jorge Allisandri Rodríguez won the presidency in 1958.

Economic Comment

Should the Greeks go on a holiday?

Some market participants and notable economists are arguing that Greece needs to exit the eurozone, even temporarily, in order to regain its external competitiveness. As attractive as this option sounds, we are inclined to strongly disagree.

Economic Comment

Germany no longer the exportweltmeister

China has taken over Germany as the world’s export champion. But this is indeed a positive development for Germany and the government should actively pursue policies to rebalance the economy even more towards domestic demand.

Economic Comment

Germany's 09Q4 growth can disappoint

Germany’s economy has contracted by a record 5.0% y-o-y in 2009. Quarterly growth in 09Q4 should be flat. However, the business surveys and the orders data suggest that economy has expanded moderately in 09Q4.

Country Report

Country Report Ukraine

Ukraine’s country risk profile has improved somewhat recently, but overall risks remain high. A new government, controlled by the party of newly elected president Yanukovych, has taken power, which has ended the political paralysis and infighting of the preceding years.

Country Report

Sri Lanka (Country report)

The end of the civil war has boosted long-term economic prospects for Sri Lanka. The economy is expected to grow over 6% in 2010. However, the humanitarian situation remains poor since the government has failed to address the grievances of the Tamil minority.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2010: globalisation at a crossroads

With regard to globalization, we find ourselves at a crossroads in a number of areas. In this special report we focus on the future - even more so than in our economic Outlook for 2010 and beyond - and we describe the dynamic field in which changes to the economic and political world order are currently taking place.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Outlook 2010

A thriving economy, such as we experienced in the years 2004-2007, is currently well beyond our reach. Officially, the recession is over, but the recovery is slow and uncertain. For the year ahead, our economists predict a meagre GDP growth of 1%.

Special

Towards a Balanced Deposit Guarantee System in Europe

The prevailing 'temporary emergency' deposit guarantee system (DGS) in Europe should be revised and adjusted when the largest turbulences in the banking sector are over. This DGS is not beneficial for financial stability and competition in banking.

Economic Quarterly Report

The Netherlands: the recession rages on

Both the speed at which the Dutch economy is deteriorating and the depth of the recession are unprecedented. The Dutch economy is going through a deep downturn this year and is expected to contract by 6% in real terms in 2009.

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly

In view of the current deterioration in the housing market, the Rabobank envisages a nominal house price drop of 5% for 2009, and a nominal drop of 1% for 2010. Downward risks for sentiment among house buyers and for market dynamics continue to prevail.

Economic Report

China: 6.5% is 3.5%, really!

The Chinese government publish consistently higher growth figures during economic downturns in the hope of maintaining social stability. Hence, we expect a growth figure close to 6.5% yoy for 2009, while the true figure will be closer to 3.5%.