RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Belgium: Good things come to those who wait

The economic recovery carries on as growth of domestic demand increases. Fiscal policy will be less distortive next year and inflation remains low. However, high unemployment and also wage moderation still limit private consumption growth.

Economic Update

Italy: Arrivederci recessione?!

GDP growth stagnated in 13Q3. One cannot talk of a start of economic recovery yet, though. The contribution of domestic demand was negative and there are still significant headwinds. On a positive note, policy uncertainty might fall going forward.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

Italy has to deal with a severe crisis and large public debt stock. Non-performing loans in the banking sector are on the rise, while government bond yields are vulnerable to political instability. Given large debt dynamics, Italy should improve its potential growth rate to ensure debt sustainability.

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - Eurozone

The eurozone economy seems to have entered a phase of modest recovery. But, worrisome public finances, limited investment demand and tight credit conditions continue to hamper growth. Current problems are unlikely to be solved by a banking union.

Economic Update

Italy: The road to Rome is still very long

The Italian economy stayed in recession in 13Q2. Sentiment is improving, but domestic demand will be too weak to support growth in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, political turmoil is making markets nervous, which further hampers the recovery.

Economic Update

Belgium: a bumpy road to recovery

In 13Q2, GDP growth turned positive after stagnation in 13Q1. Going forward, the recovery is expected to continue, but at a fairly slow pace and subject to downside risks. Robust labour market recovery is not expected before the end of the year.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

In the first quarter GDP grew by 0.1%. We do not expect domestic demand to support economic activity in 13Q2. By violating EU's budgetary rules, Belgium risks a fine and the government is forced to announce additional fiscal austerity measures.

Country Report

Country Report Norway

While rising house prices and low interest rates have boosted growth, they have also led to increasing housing market risks amid high household indebtedness. That said, the strong fiscal position mitigates the risks to financial stability.

Country Report

Country Report Denmark

Growth is hampered by weak external demand and private sector deleveraging. Although the banking sector has come a long way in addressing its weaknesses, challenges remain. Danish public finances are healthy.

Country Report

Country Report Sweden

While weak external demand hampers growth, the country has ample space to stimulate domestic demand through expansionary policy. The strong fiscal position also mitigates the downside risks stemming from the private sector.

Country Report

Country Report Belgium

Weaker growth prospects and political hurdles challenge the government’s commitment to fiscal austerity and the implementation of unpopular, yet necessary, reforms. That said, the country’s underlying economic fundamentals remain strong.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

In 2012, Italy’s GDP contracted amid harsh fiscal austerity measures and ongoing European debt crisis. The weak growth outlook in both the short and the long-term requires firm action by the government.

Country Report

Country Report Finland

The recovery of the Finnish economy slowed in 2012 and the growth outlook for 2013 is weak. The export dependent economy is struggling with weak external demand, but also with structural issues concerning its main export sectors.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

Declining producer and consumer sentiment points to a very weak pace of economic activity going forward. In addition, the relatively large fiscal adjustment in 2013 will act as a strong headwind to economic growth.