RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - China: balancing reforms and growth

After an ambitious start, China’s new leadership seems to have eased back on its reform drive. Maintaining a sufficiently strong growth rate is still the priority. For 2014, this implies only incremental reforms and a growth rate of around 7¼%.

Country Report

Country Report China

Growth in China is rebounding but, unfortunately, still driven by investment growth on the back of government stimulus and credit growth. The government thus still prioritizes on short-term growth, which makes implementing reforms a difficult task.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.

Economic Quarterly Report

China: Disappointing growth not necessarily bad

Contrary to earlier expectations, China’s economic growth slowed slightly. This was not necessarily bad news, as the growth rate remained between 7.5%-8%, whereas significantly stronger or weaker growth would currently both be undesirable. This is the translation from the Dutch version of the Economic Quarterly -

Economic Comment

China: Growth slows in first quarter

China´s economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2013, against expectations. Chinese authorities don’t seem too concerned (yet) and take a cautious approach regarding further growth supporting policies. China´s growth estimate for 2013 is lowered to 7.5%-8%.

Country Report

Country Report China

Economic growth in China unexpectedly slowed in 1Q2013. This slowdown, however, is not unwelcome at this moment and the government is thus not concerned. The ongoing credit growth is a concern, however, as this increases risks to the banking sector.

Special

Outlook 2013: China

Weakened external demand and only limited growth supporting policies from the Chinese government were the main factors explaining China's slowing growth rate in the first three quarters of 2012. Growth is expected to accelerate this year and in 2013.

Country Report

China (Country Report)

Economic growth has been slowing in China, to an estimated 7.8% in 2012. In the coming months, a major leadership transition will take place in China. The government's policies are not expected to change.

Economic Comment

China's growth rate slows further

In the third quarter, China's economic growth continued to slow, as had been expected. However, the data also shows some green shoots. We expect that growth will slightly accelerate in the last quarter, implying the growth slowdown has bottomed out.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

This month we witness that concerns on economic growth have triggered interest rate cuts in countries around the globe. China has posted its lowest economic growth in three years.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

This month’s economic data from emerging markets is rather mixed. While first-quarter economic growth in Mexico and the Philippines surprised to the upside, Brazil’s economy continues to slow down. Argentina might soon face challenging times.

Country Report

China (Country update)

Growth in China is slowing in line with a soft landing scenario (around 8.3% in 2012), but the need for structural reforms is insufficiently addressed. Inflation has fallen to around 3.5%.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2012 (full report)

In 2011, we have seen a sluggish continuation of last year's weak recovery from the Great Recession. There are now, however, indications that the economy is once again heading towards a considerable slowdown in growth.