RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Hungary’s economy fell back into recession last year and growth is expected to remain negative in 2013. Its government managed to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP, but very high foreign currency-denominated debt remains a major source of risk.

Country Report

Country Report Romania

Romania’s recovery from the crisis in 2009-2010, when GDP fell by 6.5%, has yet to gain pace. We expect the economy to have grown by a meager 0.2% in 2012. The slow growth is largely caused by the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and slow demand.

Country Report

Country Report Rwanda

Rwanda’s is in trouble. Due to the UN’s claims of involvement in the violence in DR Congo, several donors withdrew their support. This hits Rwanda hard, as donor income accounts for a large part of foreign exchange and fiscal income.

Country Report

Country Report Uruguay

Economic growth in Uruguay eased somewhat in 2012, but nevertheless remained decent. The government has tried to fight high inflation through a price freeze, while the overall policy framework remained friendly.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

The largest country risks in Lebanon lie in the political sphere, as conflicts between the government and opposition are fierce. The economic outlook is bleak as the regional unrest, particularly in Syria, will weigh on economic activity.

Country Report

Country Report Dominican Republic

Economic growth cooled markedly in the Dominican Republic, while strong pre-election spending led to a deterioration of public finances. The balance-of-payments position remains weak and could deteriorate further if PetroCaribe support were to end.

Economic Comment

Thou shalt not beggar-thy-neighbour

The G7 statement released today was aimed at addressing concerns over a fresh round of global currency wars. It is vital that the world leaders denounce beggar-thy-neighbour policies at the upcoming G20 meeting in Moscow as well.

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly February 2013

The second-hand housing market recorded a good fourth quarter in 2012. Prices stabilised and house sales rose considerably. The main reason was that buyers had a strong incentive to sign a provisional sale agreement before 1 January 2013.

Country Report

Country Report Malaysia

Driven by strong domestic demand, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 5.2% in 2012, but weak external demand may lead to a growth slowdown this year. In mid-2013, general elections will be held that will likely be won by the current government.

Economic Report

Turkey: ready to compete?

The competitiveness of the Turkish economy is obstructed by a high minimum wage, stringent labor laws and a flawed education system. Improvements are needed to allow Turkey to compete abroad and fully benefit from a young and growing labour market.

Economic Report

Turkey: coping with external imbalance

Despite Turkey's economic success over the past decade, its large external imbalance remains a cause for concern. This report considers the risks, as well as the reforms needed to reduce this imbalance and move to a more sustainable growth path.

Country Report

Country Report Bermuda

Following its fourth year in recession, Bermuda’s economy is expected to stagnate this year. The local government has to embark on fiscal consolidation soon, but these efforts should not affect the island’s important (re)insurance sector.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

GDP contracted slightly in 12Q4. Growth is expected to have been week across the board and is not likely to rebound strongly in 2013. On the upside, inflation is on a downward trend and agreements are reached to keep labour costs in check.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

In some emerging markets, economic growth has started to pick up in the fourth quarter of last year, but not in all. This year should be a better year than 2012, but growth will remain relatively weak and below the long-term trend.