RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Impact of tapering on emerging markets

In this Economic Update we take a closer look at the impact of the gradual slowing down of the rate of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the emerging markets.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

Turkey’s large current account deficit and its small stock of foreign reserves make it vulnerable to the effects of tapering by the US Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, there have also been several important political developments.

Economic Report

The Turkish 2000-01 banking crisis

Turkey experienced a severe banking crisis during 2000 and 2001. The crisis had a major impact on banking supervision and regulation, as both were extensively strengthened.

Economic Report

Turkey: long term outlook

The past decade saw Turkey break with its turbulent past. This final Special Report on Turkey’s long-term economic prospects discusses our expectations for the coming decade in all these areas.

Economic Report

Turkey: political and social situation

Located in both Europe and Asia, Turkey is often regarded as the bridge between east and west. This Special Report considers Turkey’s current social and political situation, as well as the challenges ahead.

Economic Report

Turkey: financing growth

Turkey’s growth performance over the past decade has been impressive but not without risks. This study looks at mechanisms to improve Turkey’s domestic savings rate, as well as the country’s efforts to guarantee long-term investments from abroad.

Economic Report

Turkey: ready to compete?

The competitiveness of the Turkish economy is obstructed by a high minimum wage, stringent labor laws and a flawed education system. Improvements are needed to allow Turkey to compete abroad and fully benefit from a young and growing labour market.

Economic Report

Turkey: coping with external imbalance

Despite Turkey's economic success over the past decade, its large external imbalance remains a cause for concern. This report considers the risks, as well as the reforms needed to reduce this imbalance and move to a more sustainable growth path.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

After nearly overheating in 2011, Turkey’s economic growth came to a halt in 2012, as the government and Central Bank successfully cooled domestic demand and reined in the massive influx of portfolio investments.

Country Report

Turkey (Country Update)

Turkey's economy appears to be headed for a soft-landing, after nearly overheating in 2011. While domestic demand growth came to a halt, exports took over as the main driver of growth. For 2012, we expect growth to come in at roughly 3%.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

Several emerging markets continue to experience a slowdown in growth. Growth in 12Q2 went down in both Russia and Turkey, while growth in China is likely to slow down further in Q3 as well. Meanwhile, industrial production in Mexico remained strong.

Special

Turkey: Achievements and challenges (Special)

Over the past decade, Turkey broke with its turbulent past, while positioning itself as a regional power. It now enjoys stable public finances and a well-regulated financial sector. But, despite these achievements many challenges remain.

Economic Comment

Turkey: growth slows, but worries remain

Turkey’s economic growth slowed in 4Q11. Still, volatile growth rates, combined with large current account deficits and stubbornly high inflation rates remain worrisome.

Economic Comment

Turkey: keeping heads cool helps

While Turkey’s industrial production growth is slowing, both inflation and the current account deficit remain elevated, suggesting that the central bank must not ease policy just yet.