RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Tapering, a game-changer?

The start of tapering in January 2014 is not expected to significantly change our global economic outlook. Nevertheless, it might have negative consequences for the bond markets of vulnerable countries, both in the emerging world and the eurozone.

Economic Comment Dutch version

Dutch economy still in recession

At 0.1%, the contraction of Dutch GDP in the first quarter of 2013 was relatively modest, but with output having been supported by elevated gas consumption the underlying economic development was actually very weak.

Economic Comment

China: Growth slows in first quarter

China´s economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2013, against expectations. Chinese authorities don’t seem too concerned (yet) and take a cautious approach regarding further growth supporting policies. China´s growth estimate for 2013 is lowered to 7.5%-8%.

Economic Comment

The Cyprus bailout program

The Cyprus bailout program presented on Monday 25 March is much better than the proposal presented a week before. A Cypriot euro exit has been averted, but the country will face a difficult and uncertain economic future. 

Economic Comment

The impact of Chavez’s death

The death of Hugo Chávez on Tuesday not only creates economic and political uncertainty for Venezuela, but also for some of its neighbours.

Economic Comment

UK: Osborne loses his cherished AAA

Moody’s decision to downgrade the UK’s government bond rating should not come as a surprise to investors. That said, the lower rating is a huge blow for Mr. Osborne since his austerity plan was partly based on maintaining the AAA-rating of the UK.

Economic Comment

Eurozone’s growth disappoints in 12Q4

The eurozone GDP contracted by 0.6% q-o-q in the final quarter of 2012. Sentiment indicators suggest the economy will fare better in 13Q1, but we do not expect growth to pick up strongly in 2013 amid severe economic headwinds.

Economic Comment

Thou shalt not beggar-thy-neighbour

The G7 statement released today was aimed at addressing concerns over a fresh round of global currency wars. It is vital that the world leaders denounce beggar-thy-neighbour policies at the upcoming G20 meeting in Moscow as well.

Economic Comment Dutch version

Dutch economy back in recession

The Dutch economy entered its third recession in four years in the second half of 2012. Recent sentiment indicators point to some stabilization at the start of the year, but the economic outlook remains weak and uncertain.