RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Brexit Monitor: The negotiations continue

The choice of the British population to leave the EU will have significant consequences for the relationship between the EU and the UK. Our Brexit Monitor helps you keep track of the latest Brexit developments and prepare for things to come.

Economic Comment

Brexit update: entering overtime

The UK brought the Brexit talks with the EU to a stand-still on 14 October. EU’s original deadline for a signed deal has been missed. We now estimate the chances of a ‘hard Brexit’ as almost as high as those of a deal.

Economic Report

Is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) making a policy error?

We believe the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is making a policy error after the last MPC meeting by keeping its policy rates on hold. There is a risk that the RBI is underestimating the inflationary pressure in the Indian economy and the impact of the ongoing Fed tightening cycle.

Economic Comment

De-dramatising Salzburg

The Brexit summit of EU leaders in Salzburg on 19-20 September ended up in a drama. That is not justified but it suggests the EU and the UK lack a good understanding of each other and that raises the odds of a ‘Hard Brexit’ by accident.

Economic Report

Italy is testing the limits

On 27 September the Italian government presented its budget target for 2019. The worsened outlook has shocked markets and kept them busy since. The government will expectedly temper part of its plans if necessary to calm markets. That said, the risk that it will do too little too late cannot be neglected.

Economic Report

Weathering the Indian rupee storm

The Indian rupee is the worst performing currency in Asia, losing 12% this year. We use two approaches (an EM Vulnerability Heatmap and an integrated model) to delve deeper into the fundamentals of the INR and assess whether the current weak levels are justified.