RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Spain: Strong recovery does not justify complacency

To preserve healthy economic growth rates in the medium term, the Spanish government should speed up the labour market recovery and deal with remaining challenges. Elections in 2019 could break the reform deadlock, but not necessarily in a positive way.

Economic Report

Italy is testing the limits

On 27 September the Italian government presented its budget target for 2019. The worsened outlook has shocked markets and kept them busy since. The government will expectedly temper part of its plans if necessary to calm markets. That said, the risk that it will do too little too late cannot be neglected.

Economic Report Dutch version

Spain is not Italy!

Unlike in Italy, Spain’s new government is very much pro-EU and has indicated to comply with the European budget rules. The economic impact of the government shuffle will expectedly be very limited in the short term. Early elections are likely.

Economic Comment

Italy’s political crisis continues

The short-term economic impact of the current political turmoil is limited. Italy will likely keep the Euro, but a government with Five Star and the League could severely damage debt sustainability and longer term growth prospects.