RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

EU exit contagion risk

In this Special we focus on political exit contagion risk of ‘Brexit’ to other EU countries. We look at the current political landscape in the EU and the rising trend of Euroscepticism. Although we still consider a repeat of ‘Brexit’ more unlikely than likely in all member states, some countries are certainly worth watching in the year ahead.

Special Dutch version

Monetary challenges in Europe

The results of unprecedented monetary easing measures in the past several years have been relatively disappointing so far. Furthermore, this policy also carries risks, such as excessive valuations in financial instruments and a deterioration in the functioning of markets.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016

The Dutch economy is forecast to grow by 2½% in 2016, after projected growth of 2% in 2015. This growth is broad-based. The global economy is continuing to grow at a reasonable pace, but it is not really taking off unaided.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Financial Markets

While there will be a devaluation of the Chinese renminbi, the dollar will also become stronger more generally in 2016, due in part to the Fed’s interest rate increases. The ECB is more likely to do the opposite, which will weaken the euro/dollar currency pair further still. Slightly higher capital market rates can be expected though.