RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Peru

Fuelled by higher commodity prices and improved business and consumer sentiment, Peru has recovered vigorously from the global economic crisis. As a result, the economy is now operating close to full capacity.

Country Report

Panama (Country update)

Benefitting from a large-scale public investment program, Panama’s economy will likely withstand the current global economic slowdown and continue to grow solidly. While government finances remain stable, challenges might arise over the medium-term.

Country Report

Peru (Country report)

Peru’s presidential elections were won by former left-wing radical Ollanta Humala. However, both the policies and the most key economic decision makers of the new government have a very moderate and pragmatic character.

Country Report

Russia (Country report)

The Russian economy remains too reliant on its oil and gas sector while corruption remains deeply embedded. The biggest change since our May 2011 update is the announcement that PM Putin will run for president.

Country Report

Slovenia (Country report)

Owing to its close ties with neighboring Italy and various domestic problems, Slovenia has been suffering from contagion from the euro area debt crisis. Its economic recovery remains highly export-dependent on the back of a sizable banking crisis.

Country Report

Algeria (Country update)

Algeria is experiencing continuing social unrest, although at a smaller scale than many other countries in the region. Meanwhile, the economy continues to grow at about 4% of GDP a year.

Country Report

Argentina (Country Report)

On 23 October 2011, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner won the presidential elections convincingly with 54% of the votes. Her party also regained the majority in congress which it lost in 2009. This will give Fernández a strong position in the coming years.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update France

Based on persistent weak sentiment we lowered our growth forecast for 11H2. We believe the uncertainty surrounding the European debt crisis will weigh on France’s economic activity going forward.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

The much-awaited QE2 was finally launched in October after Adam Posen, the arch-dove MPC member, convinced everyone to get on board. The programme does not seem to be a success though. Growth in 11Q3 (0.5%) was in line with expectations.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update Spain

The available production-, sales- and sentiment indicators for the third quarter of the year point to slowing economic growth. Employment took a bit hit, which pushed up the seasonally adjusted unemployment count to over 5 million people.

Economic Report

Cooperative banks in the spotlights

The United Nations has declared 2012 the International Year of Cooperatives. Therefore the European cooperative banks are the focus in this study. What are these banks’ key characteristics? And how are they performing in these turbulent times?

Country Report

Egypt (Country update)

After the revolution in the beginning of this year, Egypt’s political situation is still unstable. The main political risks include tensions between the Christian Coptic minority and Islamic parties, as well as the military not handing over power.

Country Report

Taiwan (Country update)

Although Taiwan witnessed an economic downturn during 2008/2009, the country has managed to recover well, recording 10.9% growth in GDP in 2010.

Country Report

China (Country report)

In China, real GDP growth is slowing gradually to 8.5% in 2012 under the baseline, soft landing scenario. However, a number of downside risks are present. Inflation is easing and in 2012 and 2013, China’s top leadership will be replaced.

Country Report

Turkey (Country update)

Slower growth in the second quarter helped calm the economy, thereby reducing the risk of overheating the Turkish economy. Another concern is that the domestic credit growth rate is expected to reach roughly 35% in 2011 (from 27% in 2010).