RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

China: Stimulus prevents further slowdown in growth

The lower GDP growth in the second quarter is in line with our expectations of a gradual economic slowdown. On the back of more government stimulus, June headed towards a slight recovery on several fronts. The question is not if, but when (trade) tensions with the US will flare up again.

Economic Comment

China: Stimulus as good old recipe for stabilization

China’s economic growth did not disappoint at first glance in the first quarter of 2019. It seems that the previously introduced fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have put a floor under the economic slowdown since the second half of 2018, but it’s too early to cheer about a broad recovery.

Economic Comment

China: weak start of the Year of the Pig

The first months of 2019 show a mixed, but weak picture as far as economic activity is concerned. The National People’s Congress of 2019 focused on emphasizing stability, but this was combined with contradictory goals.

Country Report

China: turbulence on financial markets accompanied by fall of FX reserves

Turbulence on financial markets has been accompanied by a strong fall of China’s still sizable stock of FX reserves. Growth in industry and construction took a hit in 2015, but service sector growth appears to have remained stable. China’s economic challenges are big.

Country Report

Country Report China

Concerns about a Chinese slowdown have increased, but most indicators suggest that the downturn is concentrated in industry and construction. The direct impact of the stock market rout is limited, but it has damaged the credibility of the crucial reform agenda of the government.

Country Report

Country report China

Growth in China is slowing. The housing market adjustment is probably not yet over, while the government may soon allow some trust loan defaults. The anti-corruption campaign has continued.

Country Report

Country Report China

Housing market weakness has lowered China’s GDP growth, but China has so far avoided a hard landing. One year after the Third Plenum, really big economic reform steps still have to be made.

Country Report

Country Report China

China’s housing market has been weakening recently, but exports seem to do rather well. The latest PMIs suggest the country should be able to avoid a hard landing.

Country Report

Country Report China

Growth in China is rebounding but, unfortunately, still driven by investment growth on the back of government stimulus and credit growth. The government thus still prioritizes on short-term growth, which makes implementing reforms a difficult task.

Economic Comment

China: Growth slows in first quarter

China´s economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2013, against expectations. Chinese authorities don’t seem too concerned (yet) and take a cautious approach regarding further growth supporting policies. China´s growth estimate for 2013 is lowered to 7.5%-8%.

Country Report

Country Report China

Economic growth in China unexpectedly slowed in 1Q2013. This slowdown, however, is not unwelcome at this moment and the government is thus not concerned. The ongoing credit growth is a concern, however, as this increases risks to the banking sector.

Country Report

China (Country Report)

Economic growth has been slowing in China, to an estimated 7.8% in 2012. In the coming months, a major leadership transition will take place in China. The government's policies are not expected to change.

Economic Comment

China's growth rate slows further

In the third quarter, China's economic growth continued to slow, as had been expected. However, the data also shows some green shoots. We expect that growth will slightly accelerate in the last quarter, implying the growth slowdown has bottomed out.

Country Report

China (Country update)

Growth in China is slowing in line with a soft landing scenario (around 8.3% in 2012), but the need for structural reforms is insufficiently addressed. Inflation has fallen to around 3.5%.