RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Swiss say Nein to Vollgeld

The idea underlying Vollgeld is that of full-reserve banking from the 1930’s. In today’s context its side-effects would likely lead to instability and a deflationary tendency. In the Swiss case, uncertainty would have prevailed in the short-term, followed by a further appreciating Swiss Franc.

Economic Report Dutch version

Spain is not Italy!

Unlike in Italy, Spain’s new government is very much pro-EU and has indicated to comply with the European budget rules. The economic impact of the government shuffle will expectedly be very limited in the short term. Early elections are likely.

Economic Comment

Italy’s political crisis continues

The short-term economic impact of the current political turmoil is limited. Italy will likely keep the Euro, but a government with Five Star and the League could severely damage debt sustainability and longer term growth prospects.

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version

House price growth reaches dizzying heights, while sales start to decline

While we still expect house prices to increase substantially this year, sales activities seem to reached a turning point on the Dutch housing market. Hampered by an increasing scarcity of homes in almost all regions, we have adjusted our 2018 sales forecast from 250,000 to 235,000 homes, a decline of 3% compared to 2017.

Special Dutch version

Wolf! Wolf! Wolf? Increasing US recessionary risks

In this publication we look at three different indications pointing at increasing US recessionary risks. Our treasury yield curve model suggests a 27% probability of a recession in the 17-month window. This probability is much higher than the recession expectation of the NY Fed.