Economic Update
The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.
Special
The unequal balance between developed and emerging economies becomes painfully clear in the different government response packages to COVID-19. Emerging markets are constrained in their ability to finance appropriate fiscal packages.
Economic Report
De handelsoorlog zal waarschijnlijk zorgen voor een versnelde verplaatsing van productie uit China. Onze nieuwe ‘Where Will They Go’ index laat zien Thailand, Maleisië, Vietnam, Taiwan en India waarschijnlijk zullen profiteren van deze verplaatsing.
Special
The US-China trade war will probably accelerate a shift of foreign production out of China. Our new ‘Where Will They Go index’ shows that Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and India are likely to benefit from this production relocation.
Special
We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.
Special
Hoewel de effecten van de opleving van protectionisme in de jaren ’30 moeilijk te scheiden zijn van de effecten van de recessie, laat die periode in de economische geschiedenis wel zien dat de gevolgen van een wereldwijde handelsoorlog vele malen groter kunnen zijn dan de beperkte effecten van de huidige schermutselingen.
Column
We kunnen niet heen om de dreiging die uitgaat van oplopende handelsspanningen. Een foto die op de G7-top werd gemaakt suggereerde dat de Westerse leiders zich in Québec verenigden tegen pater familias Trump.
Special
The macroeconomic impact of the recently announced tit-for-tat trade-restrictive measures by the NAFTA partners and the EU deviates to a substantial degree between the parties involved, with the smaller ones getting the worst of it. This suggests that trade wars favour bigger economies like the US and EU.
Special
Over de toekomst van NAFTA bestaat momenteel grote onzekerheid. Beëindiging van het huidige verdrag leidt tot economische verliezen voor de betrokken partijen. Voor Nederlandse exporteurs kan het echter ook kansen opleveren, omdat hun relatieve handelspositie verbetert.
Special
The total economic costs of a NAFTA breakdown up till 2025 would range between 0.9% and 1.0% GDP for the US, 1.3% and 2.0% GDP for Canada, and 2.2% and 2.6% GDP for Mexico, depending on the severity of the breakdown.
Economic Report
We find evidence that the current bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between Mexico and the EU raised exports by 4%. An improved BTA between the EU and Mexico could mitigate some of the negative fallout of a potential NAFTA collapse, albeit to a small extent.
Economic Report
Having reached rock bottom in 2016, Latin American economies are performing better in 2017. Most countries have fared well the adverse period, though fiscal positions have weakened across the board.
Special
The US value chain is sliced up globally, which limits possibilities for protectionist policies without hurting domestic US firms. US firms are especially involved in three Mexican industries, with the motor vehicle industry being the most prominent one.
Special
Latin American currencies remain at the mercy of external factors and in particular global liquidity and central bank policy. And that is unlikely to change in the coming year.
Economic Report
Economic activity in Latin America is expected to pick up in 2017, though the improvement is modest. Few countries enjoy the room to use monetary or fiscal stimulus to give their economies a hand.
