22 Publications

January 31, 2019 Economic Comment

Eurozone: A gradual slowdown, mounting challenges

GDP of the Eurozone grew with 0.2% in the 4th quarter. France and Spain performed better than expected, but Italy entered a recession with two quarters of negative growth rates.

January 30, 2019 Economic Report

Sectorprognoses 2019 en 2020: krapte op de arbeidsmarkt kan groei sectoren remmen (Dutch)

De krapte op de arbeidsmarkt kan de groei in de Nederlandse sectoren afremmen. Toch verwachten we dat de meeste sectoren in 2019 en 2020 blijven groeien met de bouw aan kop.

January 24, 2019 Economic Comment

Japan: Economic recovery on the cards?

We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.

January 24, 2019 Column

Ook een ‘risicovrije’ betaalbank heeft nog steeds risico’s (Dutch)

Een betaalbank heeft nog steeds risico’s. Een betaalrekening bij zo’n bank is een stuk duurder dan wat u nu gewend bent. En een betaalbank financiert geen economische activiteit. Wat is de toegevoegde waarde dan?

January 23, 2019 Economic Update Dutch version

The Netherlands: Growth declining to its potential level faster

While unemployment in the Netherlands briefly dropped to a new record low, collectively negotiated wages rose only slowly in 2018. Furthermore a decrease in demand from abroad also dampened Dutch exports in the final months of the year.

January 21, 2019 Column Dutch version

Six of the last four recessions

Financial markets are signalling the risk of a recession. They might have cried wolf before, but it is still worth paying attention to them.

January 21, 2019 Economic Report Dutch version

China: Cooling economy induces policymakers to fire up the stimulus engine (again)

Chinese economic growth continued its decline in the fourth quarter of 2018, bringing the annual growth figure for 2018 to 6.6%. This fits within our view of a gradual economic slowdown, but domestic and external risks are significantly on the rise.

January 21, 2019 Column

Een Britse ‘tragedy of the commons’ (Dutch)

Het conceptakkoord voor uittreding uit de EU werd weggestemd in het Britse ‘House of Commons’. De ontwikkelingen in het VK lijken op een klassieke ‘tragedy of the commons’, waarbij handelen vanuit eigenbelang leidt tot lagere collectieve welvaart.

January 21, 2019 Economic Report

India: 2019 Economic Outlook

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

January 21, 2019 Video

India: 2019 Economic Outlook - video

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

January 19, 2019 Economic Report

Veel van de kosten van het klimaatakkoord zullen ook over drie maanden niet duidelijk zijn (Dutch)

Het CPB rekent het Klimaatakkoord door. Dit is geen gemakkelijke taak. Weinig kosten worden begroot, terwijl er voor sommige partijen ‘verborgen’ kosten zijn. Het kabinet zal het Klimaatakkoord moeten aanvullen met eigen beleid.

January 18, 2019 Economic Report

Eurozone: Revisiting growth

The disappointing recovery of the German car sector, the yellow vests in France and slowing external demand lead to a downward revision of our growth figures for 2018Q4 and 2019Q1.