RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Germany (Country report)

Germany’s strong economic recovery and resilient labour market have ensured the country’s safe haven status. The country’s banking sector still has large cross-border exposures, especially to the vulnerable Southern European countries.

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht (integrale versie) (Dutch)

Snel ingrijpen in de overheidsfinanciën door extra te bezuinigen zal de economie die al in een nieuwe recessie verkeert onnodig schade toebrengen. Hoe langer deze hervormingen op zich laten wachten, hoe groter de kosten zijn voor de samenleving.

Economic Quarterly Report

Rente en Valuta (uit Econ. Kwartaalbericht) (Dutch)

De bancaire fundingmarkten laten voorzichtig herstel zien en de rentes op Spaans en Italiaans overheidspapier zijn sterk gedaald. De grote vraag is of de LTRO’s bijdragen aan een stucturele oplossing van de Europese schuldencrisis.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

Many instantly concluded that Germany’s annual GDP growth in 2011 (3%) implies economic contraction in 11Q4. In our view, such straightforward derivations are unwarranted. That said, the likelihood of GDP contraction in 11Q4 increased markedly.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Duitsland (Dutch)

Velen concludeerden dat de Duitse jaar-op-jaar groei (3% in 2011) een krimp in 11K4 impliceerde. Naar onze mening is deze redenering te direct. Wel is de kans op een krimp in 11K4 aanzienlijk toegenomen.

Economic Comment

Did Germany's GDP contract in 11Q4?

November’s industrial production figure has been interpreted by some as proof that Germany’s economy dipped into the red in the final quarter of 2011. We still believe a recession is not a done deal yet.

Economic Comment

Germany: Is recession a done deal?

Some have taken Germany’s recent annual growth figure (3%) as a sign that the economy has contracted by 0.2%-0.3% in 11Q4. But this will only hold true if the data on the first three quarters are not revised, which may well be the case.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update Germany

Germany’s 11Q3 growth (+0.5% q-o-q) testifies to the country’s economic resilience. Private consumption was the biggest contributor to GDP growth, partly due to the disappointing performance in 11Q2.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update Germany

Germany’s growth in 11Q2 was nothing short of disappointing, especially given the sharp contraction in consumption amid improvement in the labour market. It seems to us that waiting for German consumers to spend more is like waiting for Godot.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update Germany

Various leading indicators suggest that Germany’s growth has hit a soft patch, much like the rest of the world. This is primarily due to weaker global demand.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update Germany

Germany's economic growth momentum continues to surprise on the upside. But the pace of growth will return to more sustainable levels going forward.