RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

The inflation genie must not leave the bottle

There is an on-going debate in the UK regarding the merits of nominal GDP targeting. Of course, ‘out-of-the box’ thinking is welcome but the risk of switching to a new policy framework is high because it can destabilise inflation expectations.

Economic Comment

Eurozone’s growth disappoints in 12Q4

The eurozone GDP contracted by 0.6% q-o-q in the final quarter of 2012. Sentiment indicators suggest the economy will fare better in 13Q1, but we do not expect growth to pick up strongly in 2013 amid severe economic headwinds.

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Hungary’s economy fell back into recession last year and growth is expected to remain negative in 2013. Its government managed to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP, but very high foreign currency-denominated debt remains a major source of risk.

Country Report

Country Report Romania

Romania’s recovery from the crisis in 2009-2010, when GDP fell by 6.5%, has yet to gain pace. We expect the economy to have grown by a meager 0.2% in 2012. The slow growth is largely caused by the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and slow demand.

Country Report

Country Report Rwanda

Rwanda’s is in trouble. Due to the UN’s claims of involvement in the violence in DR Congo, several donors withdrew their support. This hits Rwanda hard, as donor income accounts for a large part of foreign exchange and fiscal income.

Country Report

Country Report Uruguay

Economic growth in Uruguay eased somewhat in 2012, but nevertheless remained decent. The government has tried to fight high inflation through a price freeze, while the overall policy framework remained friendly.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

The largest country risks in Lebanon lie in the political sphere, as conflicts between the government and opposition are fierce. The economic outlook is bleak as the regional unrest, particularly in Syria, will weigh on economic activity.

Country Report

Country Report Dominican Republic

Economic growth cooled markedly in the Dominican Republic, while strong pre-election spending led to a deterioration of public finances. The balance-of-payments position remains weak and could deteriorate further if PetroCaribe support were to end.

Economic Comment

Thou shalt not beggar-thy-neighbour

The G7 statement released today was aimed at addressing concerns over a fresh round of global currency wars. It is vital that the world leaders denounce beggar-thy-neighbour policies at the upcoming G20 meeting in Moscow as well.

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly February 2013

The second-hand housing market recorded a good fourth quarter in 2012. Prices stabilised and house sales rose considerably. The main reason was that buyers had a strong incentive to sign a provisional sale agreement before 1 January 2013.

Country Report

Country Report Malaysia

Driven by strong domestic demand, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 5.2% in 2012, but weak external demand may lead to a growth slowdown this year. In mid-2013, general elections will be held that will likely be won by the current government.

Column

Vervelen (Dutch)

De arbeid bevrijdt ons van drie grote rampen: de verveling, de ondeugd en de armoede.”. Beleidsmakers over de hele wereld hebben deze woorden van Voltaire goed in de oren geknoopt en brood en spelen vervangen door werk.

Economic Report

Turkey: ready to compete?

The competitiveness of the Turkish economy is obstructed by a high minimum wage, stringent labor laws and a flawed education system. Improvements are needed to allow Turkey to compete abroad and fully benefit from a young and growing labour market.