RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2014

The Dutch economy will not grow in 2014. Unemployment will rise further, and the slight boost provided by the global growth spurt will not be vigorous enough for the country to overcome its domestic woes. US economic performance and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth spurt.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2014 - Recovery on a shaky footing

The Dutch economy will not grow in 2014. Unemployment will rise further, and the slight boost provided by the global growth spurt will not be vigorous enough for the country to overcome its domestic woes. US economic performance and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth spurt.

Special

Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater - Theme brochure Outlook 2014

To coincide with the publication of our macroeconomic Outlook 2014, we are publishing a special companion report titled Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater. In this publication, we present our views on the euro crisis and the future of the monetary union. One of the conclusions of the report is that the current institutional reforms are not far-reaching enough to make the EMU fully immune to future crises.

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - United Kingdom

There are signs that UK’s economic activity is gathering momentum. But the recovery is not on a solid footing yet and, therefore, needs to be nurtured.

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - Eurozone

The eurozone economy seems to have entered a phase of modest recovery. But, worrisome public finances, limited investment demand and tight credit conditions continue to hamper growth. Current problems are unlikely to be solved by a banking union.

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - China: balancing reforms and growth

After an ambitious start, China’s new leadership seems to have eased back on its reform drive. Maintaining a sufficiently strong growth rate is still the priority. For 2014, this implies only incremental reforms and a growth rate of around 7¼%.

Special

Some thoughts on Euro T-Bills

This article discusses the ELEC-proposal to introduce Euro T-Bills in the eurozone. It concludes that the design of this scheme has advantages for both strong and weak countries.

Economic Report

The Tequila crisis in 1994

In this report we will focus on the crisis of 1994 in Mexico, where a strong devaluation of the peso led to both a currency and banking crisis, while a sovereign crisis was just prevented.

Economic Report

The Mexican 1982 debt crisis

In August 1982, Mexico was the first of many Latin American countries to default on its sovereign debt. This report covers the main characteristics of the Mexican debt crisis as well as its main causes and triggers.

Economic Report

The Russian Crisis 1998

Russia’s fixed exchange rate regime together with its fragile fiscal position appeared to be unsustainable in the course of 1998. By then an outbreak of a severe banking, currency and sovereign debt crisis could not be prevented.

Economic Report

The Turkish 2000-01 banking crisis

Turkey experienced a severe banking crisis during 2000 and 2001. The crisis had a major impact on banking supervision and regulation, as both were extensively strengthened.

Economic Report

The Argentine Crisis 2001/2002

In the late 1990s, Argentina’s currency peg to the US dollar, pro-cyclical fiscal policies and extensive foreign borrowing left the country unable to deal with economic shocks. This led to a severe currency, sovereign debt and banking crisis.