RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

You cannot live in a mortgage

A reduction of the maximum LTV will have far-reaching consequences for the housing market. A lower LTV would be welcome in the long term, but the best way to do that is to provide a situation that this is desirable for households themselves.

Country Report

Country Report Portugal

Portugal has made considerable progress regarding the implementation of structural reforms and safeguarding financial stability. However, the high short-term socioeconomic costs have increased political instability, which might weigh on support for further reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

The short term pain of the macroeconomic rebalancing process is clearly weighing on the political support to continue with necessary reforms. Without a more vigorous cleanup of the banking sector, it will remain a large drag on the recovery going forward.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

Italy has to deal with a severe crisis and large public debt stock. Non-performing loans in the banking sector are on the rise, while government bond yields are vulnerable to political instability. Given large debt dynamics, Italy should improve its potential growth rate to ensure debt sustainability.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2014

The Dutch economy will not grow in 2014. Unemployment will rise further, and the slight boost provided by the global growth spurt will not be vigorous enough for the country to overcome its domestic woes. US economic performance and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth spurt.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2014 - Recovery on a shaky footing

The Dutch economy will not grow in 2014. Unemployment will rise further, and the slight boost provided by the global growth spurt will not be vigorous enough for the country to overcome its domestic woes. US economic performance and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth spurt.

Special

Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater - Theme brochure Outlook 2014

To coincide with the publication of our macroeconomic Outlook 2014, we are publishing a special companion report titled Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater. In this publication, we present our views on the euro crisis and the future of the monetary union. One of the conclusions of the report is that the current institutional reforms are not far-reaching enough to make the EMU fully immune to future crises.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia has taken further steps to tackle its banking crisis, but progress has been delayed by an extensive asset quality review that is yet to reveal the true scale of the problem. Depending on the outcome, an EU-led bailout may be needed soon.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

The third free presidential elections in Indonesia’s history (1H2014) will bring a new president into office, as Yudhoyono is barred from participating after completing two terms. There is no clear favorite, increasing policy uncertainty. Also, the external position is weakening.

Country Report

Country Report Cameroon

In 2012, the economic performance of Cameroon improved on the back of the oil sector, while the political risks persisted, despite milestones having been achieved.

Country Report

Country Report Taiwan

Due to a weak external environment, Taiwan’s economy has been performing weakly, but a slight growth acceleration is expected. Political infighting in the ruling KMT party has weakened the president’s position and will hamper policy implementation.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

The Russian economy has fallen into a recession this year. A fiscal stimulus package to boost economic growth was announced in May, but we do not expect any short-term results. To gain more influence in the CIS region, Russia has resorted to strong-arm tactics.