RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Delta variant forces Australia into new lockdowns

Australia is facing new lockdowns due to the spread of the Delta variant. Nonetheless, we expect the economic impact to be less severe than last year. Inflation reached a high point of 3.8%. However, the central sees this as temporary and the RBA doesn’t expect to hike rates before 2024.

Special

Scotland: A proxy vote for independence?

The Scottish regional election is potentially shaping up to have a big impact on the future of the UK. Scottish independence has returned to the top of the agenda and the SNP will argue to have a fresh mandate. The economic argument for Scottish independence is weak, but the Conservatives aren’t in the position to credibly make this case.

Economic Report

China GDP growth outlook: Still recovering, but losing steam

China’s Q1 GDP growth surged to 18.3% on a year-to-year basis, mainly due to the low base in Q1 2020. We think the pace of the recovery will slow as the initial pent up demand in China dies out and policy support is scaled back.

Economic Report

United States: American Jobs Plan

President Biden has presented his American Jobs Plan, which amounts to about $2 trillion in spending on infrastructure and care. This should be financed by raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% and by other tax measures aimed at corporations.

Special

United States: American Rescue Plan

President Biden has delivered a large covid relief package within the first 100 days of his administration that will support Americans at least through early September. By not fully exploring the bipartisan route, Biden has limited the type of policies that he can get through Congress going forward.

Special

China’s economic recovery: A tale of two speeds

China’s economy is recovering. However, the recovery is unequal. In addition, Covid-19 has increased income inequalities and regional differences. China’s situation might give a glimpse into imbalances in the recovery of other countries as well.